تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

واکاوی و رتبه بندی استراتژی های سازگاری نسبت به تغییرات اقلیمی از دیدگاه مردم محلی مورد مطالعه: دشت سیستان

نویسندگان
مرتضی اسمعیل نژاد
بهلول علیجانی
چکیده
تلاش برای شناسایی نگرش های مردم و مدل های ذهنی آنها نسبت به تغییرات اقلیمی می تواند کاربست های لازم جهت مدیریت پساتغییر را فراهم نماید. اشاعه فرهنگ مدل سازی و مهندسی ذهن از رویکردهایی است که دانشمندان جهت مدیریت مخاطرات اقلیمی و پیامدهای تغییر اقلیم اتخاذ کرده اند. هدف از این پژوهش ارائه مدل و شناخت نگرش مردم برای سازگاری این مناطق با تغییرات اقلیمی می باشد. به ‌منظور انجام این مطالعه به تدوین چارچوب نظری برای ارائه مدل سازگاری با تغییرات اقلیمی در هیرمند پرداخته و سپس با روش میدانی به سنجش دیدگاههای مردم درباره تغییر اقلیم اقدام شد. ویژگی های سازگارانه مردم با تغییرات جدید و رویکرد مردم با چالش های پیش رو بررسی شد. این داده ها محور بر سطح دانش (آگاهی) از آب و هوا و تغییرات آن و استراتژی های کاهش و سازگاری آماده شد. داده های گرداوری شده با استفاده از تکنیک های آماری پردازش گردید و برای رتبه بندی و ارزیابی استراتژی های سازگاری مدلسازی گردید و شاخص ASI ایجاد شد. این نتایج برای بینش سیاست گذاران و ارائه دهندگان خدمات جهت توسعه محلی مهم است و می توان به اقدامات هدفمند مورد استفاده قرار گرفته و ترویج و تصویب مکانیسم های مقابله با پتانسیل برای ایجاد تاب آوری و سازگاری با تغییر آب و هوا و در نتیجه اثرات زیست محیطی انها آماده کند. نتایج نشان داد که بیشتر مردم در این منطقه به دنبال انتخاب رفتار سازشی با تغییرات اقلیمی می باشند. در مجموع 15 استراتژی در منطقه مطرح می باشد. بر اساس رتبه بندی استراتژی ها با شاخص ASI تغییر الگوی کشت، انتخاب گونه های مقاوم، کاهش مقدار زمین و تنوع کشت مهمترین الگوی های سازگاری با تغییرات محیطی می باشد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
مخاطرات اقلیمی
هیرمند
شاخص سازگاری(ASI)
رتبه بندی

عنوان مقاله English

Analysis and ranking of adaptation strategies to climate change from the perspective of local people in Sistan plain

نویسندگان English

Morteza Esmailnejad
bohlol alijani
چکیده English

Climate change is one of the crucial factors, which threaten many sector such as agriculture, water resource for decades, and the sector is more sensitive to climatic conditions. Communities are the most vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change and variability because of their low adaptive capacity. One of the challenges of climate change and human spatial dimensions of climate change in international borders where climate change, and creates special challenges. Populated places in the East where rapid urbanization, industrialization and agricultural intensification result in vulnerability to climate change, water shortages as the main concern arises.

Adaptation to climate change is the adjustment of a natural or human system to moderate the impacts of climate change, to take advantage of new opportunities or to cope with the consequences. Trying to identify the attitudes of people and their mental models of climate change can provide application to manage the post-change. Culture and engineering modeling approaches minds of scientists for climate risk management and climate change consequences have adopted. The review focused on farmers’ perceptions on changes in temperature, precipitation (rainfall), adaptation measures taken by farmers, barriers inhibiting these adaptation measures and the socioeconomic determinants of adaptations to climate change in Sistan plain.

The aim of this study is to provide mental system model, and understanding of climate change is to adapt these areas. To carry out this study to develop a theoretical framework for the model to adapt to climate change was discussed in Helmand. The field study was to assess the views of people on climate change action. The review found out that most farmers in this region are aware that the continent is getting warmer, and precipitation or rainfall patterns have changed. People with new changes and features adaptive approach to the challenges ahead were investigated. This data is based on knowledge (awareness) of water and climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies and be ready. So how compliance action is preventive in nature and to reduce the repercussions of climate change and the potential benefits of a region in the face of these side effects are formed. Most respondents aged over twenty years are at least a decade to climate change are felt to be most frequent subjects 30 to 40 years old. The data collected were processed using statistical techniques and modeling for ranking and evaluation of adaptation strategies were created and ASI index. The results for the insights, policy makers and service providers for local development is important, and can be targeted measures used and the promotion and adoption of coping mechanisms with the potential to build resilience and adapt to climate change and the resulting effects environmental prepare.

The results showed that most people in the region following the election of climate change is adaptive behavior. In total, there are 15 strategies in the region. The ASI index rating of strategies to change the pattern of cultivation, selection of resistant strains, reducing the amount of land-cultivated variety is the pattern of adaptation to environmental changes. Ensuring awareness of and adaptation to climate variability call was conducted with the cooperation of the people. Therefore, variability of climate and natural features of the area was measured by various options. The results show that already sampled respondents in the community are aware of climate change. 60% of respondents strongly observed signs of climate change and the dry season and low rainfall and warmer temperatures to believe. The main adjustment options adopted by farmers to temperature in the region include change of product types and number of ships that 61.6 percent of the farmers that their efforts. Another priority is that 39 percent of them tend to change sowing dates and planting varieties resistant to drought. The main recommendations for adapting to new circumstances in this region to stimulate the economy and livelihood of local people can be to diversify crop production (food for example, and cash crops, annual and permanent crops greenhouse) and the use of foreign income from farm sources (ecotourism, rural tourism) can be cited.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Climate risks
Helmand
consistency index (ASI)
the rankings
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Adger, W.;Huq, S.; Brown. K.; Conway, D. and M. Hulme .2015. Adaptation to Climate Change in the Developing World. Glerl.noaa.gov.
Alam, M.; Hossain, A.; Molla, M.S.H. and F. Islam .2009. Integrated approach of pond based farming systems for sustainable production and income generation. Bangladesh J. Agric Res, 34: 577–584. DOI: 10.3329/bjar.v34i4.5834
Aza-Gnandji, C.D.R.; Xu, Y.; Raitt, L. and Levy, J. 2013. Salinity of irrigation water in the Philippi farming area of the Cape Flats, Cape Town, South Africa. Earth Sci, 39: 199–210.
Dang, H. L.; Li, E.; Nuberg and Bruwer, J. 2014. Understanding farmers’ adaptation intention to climate change: A structural equation modelling study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Environmental Science & Policy, 41: 11-22. DOI: 10.1007/s00267-014-0299-6
Di Falco, S.; Yesuf, M.; Kohlin, G. and Ringler, C. 2012. Estimating the impact of climate change on agriculture in low-income countries: Household level evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Environ. Resour. Econ, 52: 457–478. DOI:10.1007/s10640-011-9538-y
El-Ashry, M.T.; Schilfgaarde, J.V and Schiffman, S.1985. Salinity pollution from irrigated agriculture. J. Soil Water Conserv, 40:48–52. DOI:10.3390/cli2040223
Harig, T.; Kaiser, F.G. and Bowler, P.A. 2001. Psychological restoration in nature as a positive motivation for ecological behavior. Environ Behav, 33:590–607. DOI: org/10.1017/S0376892907004250
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK.
Jackson, L.E.; Pascual, U. and Hodgkin, T. 2007. Utilizing and conserving agrobiodiversity in agricultural landscapes. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ, 121:196–210. DOI: 10.1016/j.agee.2006.12.011
Kurukulasuriya, P. and Rosenthal, S. 2003. Climate change and agriculture: A review of impacts and adaptations. Climate change series paper No. 91. Environment department, Agriculture, and Rural Development Department,
Kusakari, Y.; Asubonteng, K.O.; Jasaw, G.S.; Dayour, F.; Dzivenu, T.; Lolig, V.; Donkoh, S.A.; Obeng, F.K.; Gandaa, B.; Kranjac-Berisavljevic, and G. armer.2014. Perceived effects of climate change on livelihoods in Wa West District, Upper West Region of Ghana. J. Disaster Res, 9: 516–528. DOI.org/10.1590/0103-9016-2015-0163
Lindsay, P.H. and Norman, D.A. 2015.Human Information Processing an Introduction to Psychology. New York : Academic
Luni, P.; Maharjan, K.L. and Joshi, N.P. 2012. Perceptions and realities of climate change among the Chepong Communities in rural mid-hills of Nepal. J. Contemp. India Stud. Space Soc, 2: 35–50.
Maddison, D. 2006. The perception of and adaptation to climate change in Africa. CEEPA discussion paper No. 10. Centre for environmental economics and policy in Africa, University of Pretoria, South Africa.
Mendelsohn, R. 2001. Adaptation. In: Mendelsohn, R. (Ed.). Global warming and the American economy: A regional assessment of climate impacts. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK.
Ministry of Environment, Science and Technology (MEST) of Ghana. 2015. Ghana Goes for Green Growth: National Engagement on Climate Change.
Mortimore, M.J, & Adams, W.M.2001. Farmer Adaptation, Change and ‘Crisis’ in the Sahel. Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions, 11: 49– 57. DOI:10.1.1.900.2457
Nhamo, N.; Daniel, M.; Fritz, O.T.2014. Adaptation strategies to climate extremes among smallholder farmers: A case of cropping practices in the Volta Region of Ghana. Br. J. Appl. Sci. Technol, 4 : 198–213.
Smit, B., and Skinner, M.W. 2002. Adaptations options in agriculture to climate change: A typology. Mitigat. Adaptat. Strategies Global Change, 7: 85 114
Ugwumba, C.O.A.; Okoh, R.N.; Ike, P.C.; Nnabuife, E.L.C. and Orji, E.C .2010. Integrated farming system and its effect on farm cash income in Awka south agricultural zone of Anambra State, Nigeria. Am.-Eurasian J. Agric. Environ. 1: 1–6. DOI : 10.5958/j.0976-0741.34.3.005
wilder, M. .2010. Adapting Across Boundaries: Climate Change, Social Learning, and Resilience in the U.S.–Mexico Border Region. Annals of the Association of American Geographers ,10: 917-928.DOI: 10.1080/00045608.2010.500235