تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

راهکارهای کاهش مخاطرات طبیعی و مدیریت ریسک در توسعه پایدار باغات مرکبات استان مازندران

نویسندگان
فاطمه رزاقی بورخانی
احمد رضوانفر
سید حمید موحد محمدی
سید یوسف حجازی
چکیده
بخش کشاورزی و بویژه زیربخش باغبانی، به دلیل وابستگی بیشتر به شرایط آب و هوایی، بیشترین آسیب ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی را متحمل می‌شود، باغداری پایدار بر پایه رفتار بلندمدت باغداران برای تضمین پایداری و بهره‌وری زمین در آینده پدید می‌آید و به انتظارات و نگرانی‌های جامعه موردنظر در مورد تأمین غذای سالم و به حفاظت از محیط‌زیست و کاهش مخاطرات طبیعی توجه دارد. هدف اصلی این پژوهش، بررسی راهکارهای کاهش مخاطرات طبیعی و مدیریت ریسک در توسعه پایدار باغات مرکبات استان مازندران بود. پژوهش از نوع کاربردی و جامعه آماری آن شامل 122361 باغدار مرکبات در روستاهای مربوط به 12 شهرستان استان مازندران بود.حجم نمونه بر اساس فرمول کوکران به تعداد 290 نفر تعیین گردید و نمونه‌گیری به روش طبقه‌ای تصادفی با انتساب متناسب انجام شد. ابزار پژوهش پرسشنامه‌ای بوده که روایی (صوری و محتوایی) آن بر اساس نظر جمعی از کارشناسان کشاورزی پایدار، اعضای هیأت علمی گروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی و گروه مدیریت و توسعه کشاورزی دانشگاه تهران تأیید گردید و روایی تشخیصی با استفاده از شاخص میانگین واریانس استخراج شده و پایایی پرسشنامه با استفاده از محاسبه آلفای کرونباخ و نیز پایایی ترکیبی تأیید شد.برای تبیین راهکارها از روش­ تحلیل عاملی تأییدی در مدل‌سازی معادلات ساختاری با نرم افزار لیزرل نسخه 8.80 استفاده گردیده است. با توجه به نتایج تحقیق در رتبه‌بندی سازه‌های مربوط به بعد سازوکارها در مدل تحلیل عاملی مرتبه دوم، "عوامل حمایتی- اعتباری"، " عوامل محیطی- فضایی" ، " عوامل اجتماعی-مشارکتی"، " عوامل دانش و آگاهی"، " عوامل زیرساختی- نهادی" ، "عوامل آموزشی- اطلاعاتی" و " عوامل اقتصادی" به ترتیب بیشترین نقش را به واسطه بار عاملی در ساختار عاملی مرتبه دوم دارند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
توسعه پایدار
باغات مرکبات
راهکارها
کاهش مخاطرات
ترویج مدیریت ریسک

عنوان مقاله English

Mechanisms of Reducing Natural Disasters and Risk Management to the Sustainable of Citrus Gardens in Mazandaran Province

نویسندگان English

fatemeh razzaghi borkhani
ahmad rezvanfar
syed hamid movahed mohammadi
syed yousof hejazi
چکیده English

Agricultural development depends on increasing production and productivity and reducing risks threatening the agricultural sector and in the shadow of extension risk management that can be prevented of wasting and damage to agricultural crops and the provision of necessary domestic agricultural production, also providing export and currency-made to advance the country's development goals. Pay attention to the strategic location of Mazandaran in citrus products, natural hazards that threaten citrus production each year in the economic development, production and exports and providing sustainable livelihoods to farmers affected negatively. Agriculture and in particular the subdivision gardening, due to dependence on weather conditions, the brunt of climate change is undergoing, horticulture stable on long-term behavior growers to ensure the stability and productivity of the land in the future is created and the expectations and concerns of the community intended to provide a food healthy and security to protect the environment and natural hazards reduction is concerned.

The main purpose of this study was to investigate Mechanisms of Reducing Natural Disasters and Risk Management to Sustainable of Citrus Gardens in Mazandaran Province. The Population consists of all citrus farmers in the villages of 12 counties of Mazandaran province, a sample of 290 farmers was selected by using proportional random sampling method among 122361 citrus Orchard men. Data were collected by means of a questionnaire. The Validity of questionnaire was determined through sustainable agriculture experts of Mazandaran County and some faculty members at the University of Tehran, Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Agricultural Management and Development. The reliability was found to be acceptable. Diagnostic validity by using an average variance extracted (AVE) and reliability by using Cronbach's alpha and composite reliability (CR) were confirmed. To explain the mechanisms Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) was used to modeling the structural equations using LISREL software, version 8.80.

According to the results of the ranking factors related to the mechanism in dimensions, "supportive - credit", "environmental - spatial", "socio-participation", "knowledge-awareness", "infrastructure-institutional "," educational –informational" and "economic factors" respectively were mostly mechanisms and strategies based on factor coefficient. Among the credit-supportive, "insurance" has had the most important role in the structure of credit-supportive factor, thus, according to the regional agricultural insurance and damages in the event that the actual performance of the target area is less than the guaranteed performance is a good solution. One of the major goals of sustainable agricultural systems is decreasing vulnerability and improving sustainable livelihoods in rural people. Therefore adoption of GAP technologies has emphasized to increase elimination of pest with minimum impact on the environment, human health and access to sustainable agricultural development, (achieve to environmental, economic and social sustainability) as well as attention to the sustainability of on-farm activities to certain safety and quality of food and non-food agricultural crops. According to the study, understanding and awareness of farmers to improve skills and farming and horticulture management techniques to reducing natural disasters and risk management and expand the participation of farmers in risk management, to develop processing and packaging industries, convenient and refrigeration practices for storage and preservation of agricultural and horticultural crops, in addition to communication channels network through demonstration farms, farmer field schools, workshops, field days, meeting, SMS, and information and communication channels carried by ICT as necessary solutions recommended. This Provides Information and knowledge share among orchardist and strengthening local associations and with each other. This process helps them to increase their awareness about mechanisms of reducing natural disasters and risk management to sustainable of citrus gardens and find positive attitude toward it. This output complete sustainability goals of agriculture through improving social sustainability. In order to access growers to timely sales service products, the establishment of a new extension system based on an available market with up to date and secure information as Marketing Information Services (MIS) could be a suitable strategy for orchardists in order to access sustainable development.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

sustainable development
the Citrus Orchards
Mechanisms
Risk Reduction
Risk Management Extension
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Asante, S.K. 2011. Empowering Farming Communities in Northern Ghana with Strategic Innovations and Productive Resources in Dry Land Farming, Project Number 6, CPWF Project Report, Savanna Agricultural Research Institute.
Bryan, E., Ringler, C., Okoba, B., Roncoli, C., Silvestri, S. & Herrero, M., 2011. Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change in Kenya: Household and community strategies and determinants, In International Conference on May, Vol. 18.
Deressa, T.T., Hassan, R.M., Ringler, C., Alemu, T. & Yesuf, M. 2009. Determinants of Farmers’ Choice of Adaptation Methods to Climate Change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia, Global Environmental Change, 19(2):248-255.
Gangadharappa, H.V, Pramod, K.T.M. & Shiva, K.H.G. 2007. Gastric Floating Drug Delivery Systems: A Review. Journal of Indian. Pharm. Ed. Res. 41: 295–305.
Hulme, M. 2016. Concept of Climate Change, in: The International Encyclopedia of Geography. Wiley-Blackwell/Association of American Geographers (AAG). Retrieved 16 May 2016.
Ifeanyi-obi C.C., Etuk U.R. & Jike-wai O. 2012. Climate Change, Effects and Adaptation Strategies; Implication for Agricultural Extension System in Nigeria, Greener.Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 2 (2):053-060.
Leblois, A & Quirion, P. 2010, Agricultural insurances based on meteorological indices: realizations, methods and research agenda, viewed 2 May 2012 .http://www.feem.it.
Mata-Lima,H., Alvino-Borba,A., Pinheiro, A., Mata-Lima,A., Almeida, J.A. 2013. Impacts of Natural Disasters on Environmental and Socio-Economic Systems: what Makes the difference. Ambiente & Sociedade, 16(3): 45-64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S1414-753X2013000300004.
Meuwissen, M.P. 2001. Insurance as a Risk Management tool for European Agriculture Washington.D.C; World Bank.
Miranda, MJ & Vedenov, D.V. 2001. Rainfall insurance for Midwest crop production, Selected Paper for AAEA Annual Meetings 2001.
Newly, P. D. & N. L. Treverrow. 2006. Sustainable Horticulture. Prime Fact 144. New South Wales Department of Primary Industry. Available: http://dpi.nsw.gov.au./primefacts.
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Richard, F. & Johan, R. 2001. Conservation Tillage for Sustainable Agriculture; An agrarian revolution gathers momentum in Africa. Soil & Tillage Research, 61(2001): 93-107.
Roberts, D.A &Shears, R. 2008. Assistance to Improve Local Agricultural Emergency Preparedness in Caribbean Countries Highly Prone to Hurricane Related Disasters. Good Agricultural Practices for Climate Risk Management in Grenada. Summary Report. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Agricultural Extension Service Ministry of Agriculture, Grenada. April 2008.
Sumner, D.A. 2003. Implications of the USA Farm Bill of 2002 for Agricultural Trade and Trade Negotiations. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 47(1): 117-140.
Tuan Anh, N. 2016. Effects of Natural Disasters on Agricultural Production Activities in the Cambodia-Laos- Vietnam Development Triangle Area: Case Studies of Ratanakiri (Cambodia), Attapeu (Laos) and Kon Tum (Vietnam) Provinces. ASEAN-Canada Research Partnership Working Paper Series Working Paper. (2): July 2016.
Washington State University. 2006. What is Risk Management? Available at: www. Westrme.wsu.edu/pdf/WhatisRiskManagement.pdf.
Willet Gayle. 2000. Pacific Assessing Your Farm’s Risk-Bearing Capacity: The Foundation of Effective Risk Management.
WORLD BANK. 2014. Reducing the Impact of Natural Disasters in Malawi: Empowering Citizens and Taking Charge. January 29, 2014. http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2014/01/29/reducing-the-impact-of-natural-disasters-in-malawi-empowering-citizens-and-taking-charge.
Anderson, J. R. & Dillon, J. L. 1992. Risk Analysis in Dry Land Farming System. Rome: FAO. Text site.
Asante, S.K. 2011. Empowering Farming Communities in Northern Ghana with Strategic Innovations and Productive Resources in Dry Land Farming, Project Number 6, CPWF Project Report, Savanna Agricultural Research Institute.
Bryan, E., Ringler, C., Okoba, B., Roncoli, C., Silvestri, S. & Herrero, M., 2011. Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change in Kenya: Household and community strategies and determinants, In International Conference on May, Vol. 18.
Deressa, T.T., Hassan, R.M., Ringler, C., Alemu, T. & Yesuf, M. 2009. Determinants of Farmers’ Choice of Adaptation Methods to Climate Change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia, Global Environmental Change, 19(2):248-255.
Gangadharappa, H.V, Pramod, K.T.M. & Shiva, K.H.G. 2007. Gastric Floating Drug Delivery Systems: A Review. Journal of Indian. Pharm. Ed. Res. 41: 295–305.
Hulme, M. 2016. Concept of Climate Change, in: The International Encyclopedia of Geography. Wiley-Blackwell/Association of American Geographers (AAG). Retrieved 16 May 2016.
Ifeanyi-obi C.C., Etuk U.R. & Jike-wai O. 2012. Climate Change, Effects and Adaptation Strategies; Implication for Agricultural Extension System in Nigeria, Greener.Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 2 (2):053-060.
Leblois, A & Quirion, P. 2010, Agricultural insurances based on meteorological indices: realizations, methods and research agenda, viewed 2 May 2012 .http://www.feem.it.
Mata-Lima,H., Alvino-Borba,A., Pinheiro, A., Mata-Lima,A., Almeida, J.A. 2013. Impacts of Natural Disasters on Environmental and Socio-Economic Systems: what Makes the difference. Ambiente & Sociedade, 16(3): 45-64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S1414-753X2013000300004.
Meuwissen, M.P. 2001. Insurance as a Risk Management tool for European Agriculture Washington.D.C; World Bank.
Miranda, MJ & Vedenov, D.V. 2001. Rainfall insurance for Midwest crop production, Selected Paper for AAEA Annual Meetings 2001.
Newly, P. D. & N. L. Treverrow. 2006. Sustainable Horticulture. Prime Fact 144. New South Wales Department of Primary Industry. Available: http://dpi.nsw.gov.au./primefacts.
Nguyen Tuan Anh .2016. Effects of Natural Disasters on Agricultural Production Activities in the Cambodia-Laos- Vietnam Development Triangle Area: Case Studies of Ratanakiri (Cambodia), Attapeu (Laos) and Kon Tum (Vietnam) Provinces. ASEAN-Canada Research Partnership Working Paper Series Working Paper No. 2 July 2016.
Richard, F. & Johan, R. 2001. Conservation Tillage for Sustainable Agriculture; An agrarian revolution gathers momentum in Africa. Soil & Tillage Research, 61(2001): 93-107.
Roberts, D.A &Shears, R. 2008. Assistance to Improve Local Agricultural Emergency Preparedness in Caribbean Countries Highly Prone to Hurricane Related Disasters. Good Agricultural Practices for Climate Risk Management in Grenada. Summary Report. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Agricultural Extension Service Ministry of Agriculture, Grenada. April 2008.
Sumner, D.A. 2003. Implications of the USA Farm Bill of 2002 for Agricultural Trade and Trade Negotiations. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 47(1): 117-140.
Tuan Anh, N. 2016. Effects of Natural Disasters on Agricultural Production Activities in the Cambodia-Laos- Vietnam Development Triangle Area: Case Studies of Ratanakiri (Cambodia), Attapeu (Laos) and Kon Tum (Vietnam) Provinces. ASEAN-Canada Research Partnership Working Paper Series Working Paper. (2): July 2016.
Washington State University. 2006. What is Risk Management? Available at: www. Westrme.wsu.edu/pdf/WhatisRiskManagement.pdf.
Willet Gayle. 2000. Pacific Assessing Your Farm’s Risk-Bearing Capacity: The Foundation of Effective Risk Management.
WORLD BANK. 2014. Reducing the Impact of Natural Disasters in Malawi: Empowering Citizens and Taking Charge. January 29, 2014. http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2014/01/29/reducing-the-impact-of-natural-disasters-in-malawi-empowering-citizens-and-taking-charge.