تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

ارزیابی تاب‌آوری منطقه 12 کلانشهر تهران در برابر مخاطرات طبیعی

نویسندگان
فرزانه ساسان پور
نوید آهنگری
صادق حاجی نژاد
چکیده
تاب آوری شهری به توانایی یک سیستم شهری در مقیاس زمانی و فضایی برای حفظ یا بازگشت سریع به عملکردهای مطلوب گذشته در برابر اختلال(مخاطرات طبیعی) در جهت پایداری با تغییرات گفته میشود. در این راستا، پژوهش حاضر با هدف ارزیابی ابعاد تاب‌آوری شهری در برابر مخاطرات طبیعی در منطقه 12 کلانشهر تهران تدوین شده است. روش پژوهش توصیف- تحلیلی بوده و دادهها ‌به روش مطالعات کتابخانه‌ای و پیمایشی گرداوری شده است. برای تجزیه و تحلیل دادهها از آمار توصیفی و استنباطی(آزمون T-Test تک نمونه‌ای و Friedman Test) استفاده شده است. جامعه آماری شامل خبرگان مدیریت مسائل برنامهریزی شهری می‌باشد که 80 نفر به صورت نمونه‌های هدف‌مند انتخاب مورد پرسشگری قرار گرفتند. نتایج نشان داد مؤلفه پایداری زیست محیطی (33/20) مربوط به بعد اکولوژی تاب آوری شهری در رتبه اول اهمیت قرار گرفته و مؤلفه قابلیت تطبیق سیستم (11/10) مرتبط به بعد نهادی (سازمانی) به عنوان کم اهمیت‌ترین مؤلفه تعیین شده است. همچنین وضعیت بعد اقتصادی تابآوری شهری در برابر مخاطرات طبیعی از مطلوبیت کمی (ضعیف)، وضعیت ابعاد اجتماعی، اکولوژی و نهادی (سازمانی) با مطلوبیت خیلی ضعیف همراه است. در نهایت میتوان بیان کرد که مطلوبیت تاب آوری شهری در منطقه 12 کلانشهر تهران در برابر مخاطرات طبیعی با توجه به کلیه ابعاد و مؤلفهها خیلی ضعیف بوده است و بنابراین این منطقه در برابر مخاطرات طبیعی تابآور و پایدار نیست.
کلیدواژه‌ها
تاب آوری
تاب آوری شهری
مخاطرات طبیعی
منطقه 12 کلانشهر تهران

عنوان مقاله English

Evaluation of the urban resilience against natural hazards in 12 region of Tehran Metropolis

نویسندگان English

farzaneh sasanpour
navid ahangari
sadegh hajinejad
چکیده English

International studies show that the damages caused by natural hazards is essential that special attention to natural hazards in urban societies of the world, especially in urban areas of developing countries. In many of these communities needed new ways to deal with these challenges. This method should provide sufficient knowledge to identify the nature of problems and the identification of individual characteristics, socio-economic, physical, environmental and management, would in effect do the "Back to Balance" against natural hazards. This feature Back to Balance the same resiliency. The term resilience has a very long history and its use goes back at least a century BC. According to the different interpretations of the concept of resilience, this term is rooted in the traditions of various disciplines such as law, engineering, ecological and social sciences. Today, the concept of resilience has entered the field of planning with different orientations (social, economic, physical, and administrative, etc.).Although it still focuses more attention on environmental issues and a large part of its exploration dedicated to managing the environmental hazards such as earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and global warming. Tehran, as a result of political and economic influence, special conditions to deal with the crisis in terms of the influence of natural disasters and crisis management in terms of organizational structure and legal. In this respect, residential and urban areas of 12 with characteristic their history can be acute against the imbalances caused by natural hazards and create a crisis in urban life. Therefore, the present study has been prepared for the purpose of stability analysis flexibility in District 12 of Tehran metropolitan city.

This is of cognitive research that has been done for analytical and descriptive. All data is obtained in the manner of library and field. The library of available resources and work conducted the form of a questionnaire survey. Questionnaires have been used of type Likert spectrum (numerous, high, high, somewhat, relatively low, low and very low), and its completion is done by fieldwork. Statistical population has problems of urban planning experts, among them 80 people were interviewed for targeted samples. Resiliency that includes four dimensions (economic, social, ecological, environmental and institutional). Was approved the validity of the index by 7 experts manage urban planning problems. For measuring reliability coefficient is calculated Cronbach's alpha equal to 0/79. For data analysis, the use of statistical analysis such as frequency, maximum and minimum, average and standard deviations, T-Test one sample test and Friedman nonparametric test

The results of the indicators of urban resiliency against natural hazards suggests that economic indicators 73/24 Average been determined and relatively low level, ie below the average level. Results of the test showed one sample T-Test is an indicator of economic status of urban resilience against natural hazards of poor utility. As well as the social, ecological, environmental and institutional (organizational) urban resilience against natural hazards associated with poor utility. Finally the 12 metropolitan Tehran metropolitan areautility resilience against natural hazards with respect to all dimensions were too weak. Friedman test results on the scoreboard indicators showed that the index of environmental sustainability (20/33) related to the ecology and environment in the first rank the importance of urban resilience and adaptability Index System (10/11) related to next institutional (organizational) is set as the least significant indicator. Also, significant chi-square statistic is calculated at a rate of 09/67 in three degrees of freedom at the level of 0.000. So, with a probability of 99% can be said that there is a significant difference between the performance rating of 80 specialist urban resilience dimensions (economic, social, ecological, environmental and organizational) against natural hazards, and not the distribution of the same rank.

This research been prepared with the aim of assessing the scale of urban resilience against natural hazards in District 12 of Tehran Metropolis. Results showed that social, environmental and institutional ecology and urban resilience against natural hazards associated with poor desirability. According to this result, it is concluded that the region as a whole is resilient against natural hazards. In this direction, the resilience approach guidance to managers and practitioners use of flexible decisions and concerted policy for urban management. Build resilience in this area to support programmes should invest in organizing access to both external and existing resources in a fair manner, with a coordinated governance structure, and to facilitate social solidarity and support as part of disaster response. The findings also stress the importance of taking an ecological approach to studying resilience to disasters. Many factors from individual, community, and societal levels seem to be important in shaping resilience perceptions of natural hazards survivors. Understanding this evidence will help to validate and further develop indicators of resilience. Our findings point out that, despite existing pre-disaster vulnerabilities, resilience can be fostered following disasters if community members perceive availability of aid and support and mobilize resources Hence, psychosocial support programmes should invest in organizing access to both external and existing resources in a fair manner, with a coordinated governance structure, and to facilitate social solidarity and support as part of disaster response. The findings also stress the importance of taking an ecological approach to studying resilience to disasters. Many factors from individual, community, and societal levels seem to be important in shaping resilience perceptions of natural hazards survivors. Future research should conduct multiple levels of analysis with an all-hazards perspective to reveal how they can be integrated to increase adaptive capacities. Future research should focus on the process of capacity building through informing action to better prepare for disasters. Finally, this research tells us that due to the resiliency of the city will be able to have knowledge of all relevant indicators in the resiliency and reduce the adverse effects of these risks in urban communities

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Sustainability
resiliency urban
Natural hazards
District 12 of Tehran Metropolis
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Folke, C. 2006. Resilience: the emergence of a perspective for social-ecological systems analyses. Global Environmental Change, 16, 253-267. DOI:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.04.002.
Folke, C., Carpenter, S.R., and Elmqvist, T., Gunderson, L., Holling, C.S., Walker, B. 2002. Resilience and sustainable development: building adaptive capacity in a world of transformations. AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, 31(5):437-440. DOI.org/10.1579/0044-7447-31.5.437
Garschagen, M. 2013. Resilience and organisational institutionalism from a cross-cultural perspective: an exploration based on urban climate change adaptation in Vietnam, Nat. Hazards, 67: 25–46. DOI:10.1007/s11069-011-9753-4.
Grimmond, S. 2007. Urbanisation and global environmental change: local effects of urban warming. The Geographical Journa,173:83–8. DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4959.2007.232_3.x
Holling, C. S. 1973. Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annual Review of Ecological Systems, 4: 1–23. DOI:10.1146/annurev.es.04.110173.000245.
King Christine, A. 2008. Community Resilience and Contemporary Agri-Ecological Systems: Reconnecting People and Food, and People with People, Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Syst. Res. 25: 111-124. DOI: 10.1002/sres.854
Kulig, J. 2000. Community resiliency: The potential for community health nursing theory development. Public Health Nursing, 17-5: 374–385. DOI: 10.1046/j.1525-1446.2000.00374.x.
Kulig, J., & Hanson, L. 1996. Discussion and expansion of the concept of resiliency: Summary of think tank. Lethbridge, AB: University of Lethbridge, Regional Center of Health Promotion and Cummunity Studies.
Lebel, L., J. M. Anderies, B. and Campbell, C., Folke, S., Hatfield-Dodds, T. P., Hughes, J. W. 2006. Governance and the capacity to manage resilience in regional social-ecological systems. Ecology and Society, 11(1): 19. DOI: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss1/art19.
Madni, A. M. 2007. Designing for Resilience. ISTI Lecture Notes on Advanced Topics in Systems Engineering.
Maguire B., Hagan, P. 2007. Disasters and communities: understanding social resilience, The Australian Journal of Emergency Management, 22:16-20. DOI: http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/AUJlEmMgmt/2007/15.
Martinelli, D., Gian Paolo, C. and Vesna,T., Stephen, M. 2014. Analysis of Economic Resiliency of Communities Affected By Natural Disasters: The Bay Area Case Study. 4th International Conference on Building Resilience, Building Resilience, Economics and Finance, 18: 959 – 968. DOI: 10.1016/S2212-5671(14)01023-5.
McDonald, N. 2006. Organisational resilience and industrial risk. Hollnagel, E., D.D. Woods, N. Leveson, eds. Resilience Engineering: Concepts and Precepts. Ashgate, Hampshire, 155–179.
McManus, S., Seville, E. and Vargo, J., Brunsdon, D. 2008. Facilitated Process for Improving Organizational Resilience.Natural Hazards Review, 9(2): 81-90. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2008)9:2(81).
Norris, F.H., Stevens, S.P. and Pfefferbaum, B., Wyche K.F., Pfefferbaum, R. L. 2008. Community Resilience as a Metaphor, Theory, Set of Capacities, and Strategy for Disaster Readiness, American Journal of Community Psychology, 41: 127–150. DOI: 10.1007/s10464-007-9156-6.
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