تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

برآورد حساسیت زمین لغزش با استفاده از مدل رگرسیون لجستیک و شاخص آنتروپ ی مطالعه موردی: ارتفاعات شهرستان دالاهو

نویسندگان
سحر دارابی شاهماری
امیر صفاری
دانشگاه خوارزمی
10.29252/jsaeh.6.2.165
چکیده
چکیده:

زمین لغزش­ها بخصوص در کشورهای در حال توسعه و جهان سوم، یکی از شناخته شده ترین مخاطرات طبیعی در جهان هستند و نتایج آنها به ویژه در مناطق شهری می­تواند تهدیدی مستقیم برای زندگی و اقتصاد مردم در معرض خطر باشد. در این مطالعه به تهیه نقشه حساسیت زمین لغزش دامنه­های شهرستان دالاهو با استفاده از مقایسه­ی شاخص آنتروپی و رگرسیون لجستیک پرداخته شده است. پارامترهای مورد مطالعه در تهیه نقشه LSM شامل شیب، جهت شیب، ارتفاع، فاصله از رود، فاصله از جاده، فاصله از گسل، کاربری اراضی، لیتولوژی و بارش هستند. هر یک از پارامترها با توجه به تأثیر بر مخاطره لغزش، طبق نظرات کارشناسی امتیازدهی شده و به صورت رستری به عنوان لایه­های اصلی در شاخص آنتروپی بکار گرفته شده­اند. ماتریس آنتروپی برای هر یک از عوامل محاسبه شده، و در محیط GIS نقشه پهنه بندی زمین لغزش منطقه، تهیه شده است. در تهیه نقشه حساسیت زمین لغزش با استفاده از مدل رگرسیون لجستیک با توجه به متغیرهای مستقل( پارامترهای مؤثر بر لغزش) و متغیر وابسته(داده های زمین لغزش) به تعیین بهترین معادله اقدام شده و با استفاده از ضرایب مربوط به هر یک از متغیرهای مستقل، نقشه LSM منطقه مورد مطالعه تهیه شده است. جهت اعتبار سنجی مدل­ها، با استفاده از 30 درصد نقاط لغزشی، منحنی ROC، ترسیم شده و مساحت زیر منحنی(AUC) محاسبه شده است. نتایج اعتبار سنجی نشان داده که شاخص مدل آنتروپی(AUC = .86.) نسبت به مدل رگرسیون لجستیک (AUC= .80) در تولید نقشه­های حساسیت زمین لغزش در منطقه مورد مطالعه از صحت بیشتری برخوردار است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
کلمات کلیدی: آنتروپی
رگرسیون لجستیک
زمین لغزش
دالاهو

عنوان مقاله English

Landslide susceptibility mapping of Dalahoo Mountains using index of Entropy and Logistic Regression model

نویسندگان English

sahar darabi shahmari
amir saffari
kharazmi university
چکیده English

Landslide susceptibility mapping is essential for land use planning and decision-making especially in the mountainous areas. The main objective of this study is to produce landslide susceptibility maps (LSM) at Dalahoo basin, Iran using two statistical models such as an index of entropy and Logistic Regression and to compare the obtained results. At the first stage, landslide locations identified by Natural Resources Department of Kermanshah Province is used to prepare of LSM map. Of the 29 lanslides identified, 21 (≈ 70%) locations were used for the landslide susceptibility maps, while the remaining 8 (≈ 30%) cases were used for the model validation. The landslide conditioning factors such as slope degree, slope aspect, altitude, lithology, distance to faults, distance to rivers, distance to roads, land use, and lithology were extracted from the spatial database. Using these factors, landslide susceptibility and weights of each factor were analyzed by index of entropy and Logistic Regression models. Finally, the ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curves for landslide susceptibility maps were drawn and the areas under the curve (AUC) were calculated. The verification results showed that the index of entropy model (AUC = 86.08%) performed slightly better than conditional probability (AUC = 80. 13%) model. The produced susceptibility maps can be useful for general land use planning in the Dalahoo basin, Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Keywords: Landslide
Index of Entropy model
Logistic Regression model
Dalahoo
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تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی
دوره 6، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 22
تابستان 1398
صفحه 165-180