تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

شبیه‌سازی اثر گرمایش جهانی بر میانگین و رخدادهای حدی برخی متغیرهای هیدرواقلیمی در حوضه ی آبریز شاندیز، مطالعه موردی: مدل گردش کلی CanESM2

نویسندگان
الهام فهیمی نژاد 1
محمد باعقیده 1
ایمان باباییان 2
علیرضا انتظاری 1
1 دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری
2 مشهد-پژوهشکده اقلیم شناسی-
10.29252/jsaeh.6.3.27
چکیده
دو مشخصه بارز اقلیم آینده تغییر در میانگین و مقادیر حدی متغیرهای هیدرواقلیمی می‌باشد، از این رو شبیه سازی رفتار اقلیم حوضه آبریز شاندیز که یک منطقه گردشگری مهم در شمال‌شرق کشور است در دهه های آینده نقش مهمی در شناخت وضعیت اقلیم و آسیب پذیری احتمالی این مناطقه از تغییر اقلیم دارد. هدف از این پژوهش شناسایی مقادیر حدی دما، بارش و تغییرات رواناب حوضه آبریز شاندیز و مقایسه شرایط پایه و آینده است. برای نیل به این هدف از آمار روزانه دما و بارش روزانه 30 سال آماری (از 1990-1961) ایستگاه سینوپتیک مشهد استفاده شده است. همچنین برای پیش بینی بارش، دمای حداقل و حداکثر در آینده از داده های مدل گردش کلی CanESM2 تحت سه سناریوی انتشار RCP2.6، RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 برای دوره 2100-2041 استفاده شده است. برای ریزگردانی خروجی مدل CanESM2 از روش آماری SDSM و برای استخراج مقادیر حدی بارش از نرم افزار RClimDex استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان داد که در دوره آینده نه تنها در مقدار بارش ایستگاه مشهد بلکه در الگوی بارش نیز تغییراتی رخ خواهد داد. بر اساس نتایج بدست آمده، بارش سالانه در دهه ی 2070-2041، بین 37 تا 54 درصد نسبت به دوره ی دیدبانی افزایش می یابد، و میزان افزایش بارش دهه ی 2100-2071 بین 52 تا 66 درصد افزایش می یابد. تعداد رخداد بارش های روزانه با شدت های 10، 20 و 30 میلیمتر در روز، بارش های با آستانه های صدک 95 و 99 دوره های آتی در تمامی فصول ایستگاه مشهد نسبت به دوره مشاهداتی (1990-1961) افزایش خواهند یافت. در دهه های آینده میانگین دمای حداکثر مشهد نسبت به دوره مشاهداتی بین 4/6 – 6/0 درجه سلسیوس و میانگین دمای حداقل بین 5/1 تا 2/4 درجه سلسیوس افزایش خواهد یافت.

از مدل SWAT جهت ارزیابی اثرات تغییراقلیم بر میزان رواناب حوضه استفاده گردید. بدین منظور ابتدا این مدل با استفاده از دبی ایستگاه هیدرومتری شاندیز برای دوره 2012-2003، واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی شد که مقادیر R2 به ترتیب 65/0 و 52/0 بدست آمد. در ادامه با بکارگیری داده‌های ریزمقیاس شده مدل CanESM2 در مدل SWAT، تغییرات رواناب خروجی از حوضه طی دوره های 2070-2041 و 2100-2071 شبیه سازی گردید. اعمال نتایج تغییرات بارش و دمای حوضه در دهه های آینده بر مدل SWAT نشان داد که دبی حوضه شاندیز در دهه های آینده بین 2 تا 104 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت.
کلیدواژه‌ها
گرمایش جهانی
مخاطرات هیدرواقلیمی
مدل GCM
SDSM
SWAT
حوضه آبریز شاندیز

عنوان مقاله English

Simulation of the effect of global warming on the mean and extreme events of some hydrochemical variables in Shandiz catchment basin Case study: The Case of the general circulation model CanESM2

نویسندگان English

Elham Fahiminezhad 1
M ohammag Baaghide 1
Iman Babaeian 2
Alireza Entezari 1
1 Hakim Sabzevari University
2 Climatological Research Institute, National Center of Climatology, Research Group Climate Change
چکیده English

Changes in the mean and the extreme values of hydroclimatic variables are two

prominent features of the future climate. Therefore, simulating the climatic

behavior of Shandiz catchment area, an important tourist area in the northeast of

the country, will play an important role in identifying the climate condition and

potential vulnerability of these areas in the coming decades of climate change.

In this study, we will

evaluate the effects of climate change on extreme values of the basin micro scaling

precipitation and temperature in CanESM2 model using SDSM model and

simulating runoff with SWAT model in future decades.

To achieve this goal, the daily temperature and precipitation statistics of the 30

statistical years (1961-1990) of Mashhad synoptic station have been

used. The data of the CanESM2 general circulation model under RCP2.6, RCP4.5

and RCP8.5 scenarios are also used to predict precipitation, the minimum and

maximum temperature for 2041 to 2100.

According to the results, the annual precipitation rises 37 to 54 percent from 2041

to2070 compared to the observation period, and the increase in rainfall of the

2071-2100 rises 52 to 66 percent. Precipitation extreme values, the mean of

maximum and minimum temperatures in future periods in all seasons of Mashhad

station will increase compared to the observation period (1961-1990).In future decades, the average maximum temperature in Mashhad will increase from 4.6 to 0.65 degrees Celsius

and the average minimum temperature will increase 53/1 to 22/4.

By introducing micro scaled time series of the maximum temperature, temperature,

and micro scaled precipitation by SDSM model to SWAT model, the monthly time

series of Shandiz watershed runoff at Sarasiab Station was simulated for the two

periods of 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 under three distribution scenarios of RCP2.6,

RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. For this purpose, first, the model was calibrated and validated

using Shandiz hydrometric station runoff for 2003-2012, and the values of R2 were

65 and 52, respectively. Subsequently, with the introduction of micro scaled time

series of maximum and minimum temperatures, and micro scaled precipitation by

SDSM model to SWAT model, the average annual trend shows that runoff

increases in the coming decades. The lowest average annual increase for runoff is

in 2041-2070 and RCP4.5 scenario, with an increase of 56.1% over the observation

period. The highest increase of average annual monthly runoff is from 2071 to2100

under RCP 2.6 scenario with 53% to 104% runoff compared to the observation period.




کلیدواژه‌ها English

Global warming
Hydroclimatic Risks
GCM Model
SDSM
SWAT
Shandiz Basin
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