تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

مدلسازی ریسک و فشار آتش با استفاده از سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی در شهرستان‌های خلخال و کوثر

نویسندگان
رقیه جهدی 1
علی اصغر درویش صفت 2
حسین بدری پور 3
1 دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی
2 دانشگاه تهران
3 سازمان جنگلها، مراتع و آبخیزداری کشور
10.29252/jsaeh.7.3.79
چکیده
آتش ­سوزی­ ها منجر به آسیب قابل توجه به محیط­ زیست طبیعی اردبیل در سالهای گذشته شده، و شیوع بیشتر این حوادث در آینده قابل پیش­ بینی­ است. نقشه ­های ریسک و فشار آتش در مقیاس مناسب برای مدیران سیمای سرزمین و تصمیم­ گیران برای استراتژی­ های پیشگیری، کاهش و پایش آتش ضروری است. در این مقاله، شبکه­ های رستری متریک ریسک و فشار آتش با اندازه تفکیک 100 متر برای شهرستان ­های حساس به آتش ­سوزی در جنوب استان اردبیل براساس مدل شبیه­ سازی آتش و تجزیه و تحلیل مکانی در محیط سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی، همراه با داده تکمیلی احتراق و سطح آتش تاریخی (1397-1384) تهیه شد. پارامترهای ریسک آتش (احتمال سوختن (BP)، طول شعله شرطی (CFL) و اندازه آتش (FS)) با الگوریتم حداقل زمان حرکت (MTT) FlamMap با توجه به شرایط آب و هوایی 14 فصل آتش­ سوزی گذشته تولید شد. علاوه بر این، شاخص پتانسیل آتش (FPI) برای تجزیه و تحلیل مکانی نقاطی که با احتمال بیشتری آتش ­سوزی­ های بزرگ از آنجا شروع می ­شوند، برآورد شد. متوسط BP، CFL و FS به ترتیب 0025/0-00007/0، 6/1-05/0 متر و 360-55 هکتار بدست آمد که بر تغییرات زیاد در فاکتورهای فشار آتش در منطقه مطالعه تاکید دارد. FPI محاسبه شده، دو ناحیه اصلی با بیشترین ارزشها را نشان داد که شامل مناطق با احتراق ­های تاریخی زیاد و نواحی وسیع با وجود مواد سوختنی با اشتعال سریعتر است. نتایج این مطالعه می­تواند برای تجزیه و تحلیل ریسک و براورد اثرات بالقوه آتش، ارزیابی تغییرات تاریخی و روندهای آتی فشار آتش، و تعیین استراتژی­ های تیمار ماده سوختنی به منظور کاهش ریسک آتش سودمند باشد.



کلیدواژه‌ها
الگوریتم MTT
ریسک آتش
احتراق تاریخی
احتمال سوختن
سیمای سرزمین

عنوان مقاله English

Wildfire risk and exposure modeling using geographic information system in Khalkhal and Kowsar municipalities

نویسندگان English

Roghayeh Jahdi 1
Ali Asghar Darvishsefat 2
Hossein Badripour 3
1 Department of Natural Resources Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili
2 Department of Forestry, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, I.R. Iran.
3 Forests, Rangelands and Watershed management Organization (FRWO)
چکیده English

Wildfires have proven to cause considerable damage to natural environments in Ardabil in the last years, and the prevalence of such events is anticipated to increase in the future. Fine scale wildfire exposure and risk maps are fundamental to landscape managers and policy makers for prevention, mitigation and monitoring strategies. In this paper, we provided 100 m resolution wildfire risk and exposure metric raster grids for the fire-prone municipalities in South Ardabil province corresponding to a fire simulation modeling and a geospatial analysis with a geographic information system, along with complementary historic ignition and fire area data (2005-2018). Fire risk parameters (burn probability (BP), conditional flame length (CFL) and fire size (FS)) were generated with FlamMap Minimum Travel Time (MTT) algorithm considering fire weather conditions during the last 14 wildfire seasons. Moreover, we estimated fire potential index (FPI) to spatially analyze where large fires likely initiate. Average BP, CFL and FS ranged from 0.00007 to 0.0025, 0.05 to 1.6 m, and 54.7 to 360.3 ha, respectively, that highlighted a large variation in the fire exposure factors in the study area. The calculated FPI showed two major areas with the highest values, where historic ignitions were high, and where large areas of faster burning fuels were present. The results of this study can be useful for analyzing potential wildfire risk and effects at landscape scale, evaluating historical changes and future trends in wildfire exposure, as well as for determining fuel treatment strategies to mitigate wildland fire risk.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

MTT algorithm
Fire risk
Historic ignition
Burn probability
Landscape scale
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