تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

ارزیابی تاثیر تغییر اقلیم بر تغییرات حجمی و توزیع زمانی جریان رواناب ناشی از ذوب برف (مطالعه موردی : حوضه آبخیز منتهی به سد امیرکبیر)

مقالات آماده انتشار
نویسندگان
فاطمه فلاحتی 1
بهلول علیجانی 2
محمد سلیقه 2
1 پ‍ژوهشکده سوانح طبیعی
2 دانشگاه خوارزمی
چکیده
برف منبعی مطمئن در تامین آب بوده و آگاهی از توزیع و مقدار آب موجود در آن، می تواند در مدیریت منابع آب بسیار حیاتی باشد . بنابراین با توجه به تغییر اقلیم و تغییر زمان ذوب برف ،پیش بینی زمان ورود آب حاصل از ذوب برف به چرخه مصرف آب ،جهت برنامه های ریزی های محیطی از اهمیت بسزایی برخوردار است . هدف از انجام این تحقیق بررسی تغییرات حجمی و توزیع زمانی جریان ناشی از ذوب برف در سالهای آتی با تلفیق علم سنجش از دور و GIS و مدلهای اقلیمی می باشد . به منظور بررسی تاثیرات اقلیم بر بارش و دما در این حوضه از مدلهای جدید ncc_noresm1_m و ncar_ccsm4 استفاده شد که تحت سناریوهای RCP2.6 ،RCP4.5 ،RCP6.0 و RCP8.5 اجرا شدند . دما و بارش در چهار دوره آتی ( 2021-2030 ،2031-2040 ،2041-2050 و 2051-2060 )تحت هر چهار سناریو محاسبه شدند . همچنین برای تعیین سطح پوشش برف در حوضه از تصاویر روزانه پوشش برف MODIS (Mod 10 A1) استفاده شده است . از بررسی ارتباط بین مساحت پوشش برف با دما و بارش مشاهده شده ، به منظور پیش بینی سطح پوشش برف در آینده استفاده شده است . نتایج سناریو های RCP ،نشان دهنده افزایش دما و کاهش بارش و پوشش برف در آینده درمنطقه مورد مطالعه می باشد . بررسی رواناب ذوب برف در دوره مشاهداتی (2015-2010) نیز نشان داد حدود 82 درصد از رواناب سالانه در حوضه مورد مطالعه به ذوب برف مربوط است . بیشترین رواناب ناشی از ذوب برف در طول فصل بهار بویژه اواخر این فصل تا اوایل تابستان اتفاق می افتد .نتایج بررسی سناریوهای آینده نشان داد نه تنها سهم ذوب برف از مجموع آب تولید شده در سال کاهش خواهد یافت ، بلکه با تغییر زمان حداکثر ذوب برف از اواخر بهار به اواسط زمستان تا اواسط بهار ، از توزیع مناسب آب حاصل از ذوب برف در طول سال کاسته می شود
کلیدواژه‌ها
تغییر اقلیم
ذوب برف
MODIS
مدل SRM
مدلهای ریزمقیاس نمایی

عنوان مقاله English

The impact of climate change on the amount and temporal distribution of snow melt run off in the Amir Kabir dam watershed

نویسندگان English

fatemeh falahati 1
Bohlol Alijani 2
mohammad saligheh 2
1 Natural Disaster Research Inistitute
2 Kharazmi University
چکیده English

In many areas, snow cover in the mountains is a major source of surface and underground water supply. Due to climate change and its effect on the time of melting ,it is very important for environmental planning to predict the arrival time of water from snow melt to water consumption cycle. The purpose of this study is to investigate the volumetric changes and time distribution of snow flood flows in future by integrating remote sensing , GIS and climatic models.The studied area is the Upper Basin of Amir Kabir Dam, which is located on the southern slopes of Alborz Mountains. In this study, digital elevation maps (DEM) and GIS software were used to estimate parameters such as area, environment, main length, highest and lowest elevation points. In order to complete the snow cover data, MODIS products (MOD10A100) were extracted and the snow cover was extracted in the Upper Basin of Amir Kabir Dam. Next, runoff and snow melting models were simulated using SRM software. Calibration and validation of the model's acceptable performance were estimated. Then, in order to investigate the effects of climate change on the future of snowmelt runoff production in the basin of Amir Kabir Dam, the latest CMIP5 climatic models were used under four scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. A survey on the relationship between snow cover area , temperature and precipitation was used to predict snow cover in the future. The increase in temperature in the autumn and winter season has led to a reduction in the shape of precipitation in the form of snow, and as a result, the amount of snow storm is reduced. The results show that the amount of runoff in the autumn and winter increases due to increased rainfall in the form of rain, and it will be increased late winter and spring due to the increase in the amount of water resulting from snow melting. The results of this study are based on the increase of snow melt as a result of increased runoff volume, reduction of snow reserves and maximum flow transmission to earlier than normal conditions due to early snow melting due to temperature rise. Generally, in the future, the average annual runoff will be decreased about 1.1 cubic meters per second, and the average annual melting share will be about 13.9%

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Climate Change
snow melting
MODIS
SRM model
exponential microscale models
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تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده
انتشار آنلاین از 01 بهمن 1399