تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

مقایسه نتایج تحلیل تصمیم گیری چندمعیاره در پهنه بندی مناطق مستعد خطر سیلاب با شاخص های سنجش از دور در حوضه آبریز رودخانه کهیر(بلوچستان جنوبی)

نویسندگان
علیرضا خسروی
مهدی اژدری مقدم
سید آرمان هاشمی منفرد
حمید نظری پور
دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان
چکیده
نقشه‌های خطر سیلاب یکی از ابزارهای سودمند در جهت مدیریت این مخاطره در حوضه آبریز و کاهش اثرات آن است. در حوضه بلوچستان جنوبی و حوضه آبریز رودخانه کهیر، باتوجه ‌به وجود دو رژیم بارشی زمستانه و تابستانه، وقوع سیلاب‌های ناگهانی امری اجتناب‌ناپذیر است که باتوجه‌ به استقرار جوامع روستایی و سکونتگاه‌ها در نواحی مستعد وقوع سیلاب، هرساله موجب واردآمدن خسارات فراوان به جمعیت آسیب‌پذیر منطقه می‌گردد. در راستای پهنه‌بندی خطر سیلاب، داده‌های اقلیمی، هیدرولوژیک، پوشش زمین و توپوگرافی حوضه از منابع معتبر تهیه و باتوجه‌به مطالعات علمی، دوازده متغیر تأثیرگذار بر بروز خطر سیلاب در قالب پنج مؤلفه اصلی (هیدرولوژیک، پوشش گیاهی، پوشش زمین، اقلیمی و توپوگرافی)، جمع­آوری گردید. با استفاده از دو روش همپوشانی فازی و وزنی و امکانات سامانه اطلاعات جغرافیایی نقشه متغیرها و مؤلفه­ها پس از طبقه‌بندی مجدد و فازی‌سازی با عملگرهای مناسب تهیه شد. نتایج نشان داد که روش همپوشانی فازی باتوجه‌ به منطق حاکم بر آن، قدرت تمایز بهتری از مناطق مستعد وقوع سیلاب دارد و می‌تواند به ریز پهنه‌بندی خطر وقوع سیلاب، کمک نماید. با مقایسه نتایج حاصل از داده‌های واقعی وقوع سیلاب دی‌ماه ١٣٩٨ حاصل از تصاویر ماهواره سنتینل 2، صحت نتایج روش فازی به طور نسبی مورد تأیید قرار گرفت. با ملاحظه تمرکز سکونت­گاه­ها در پیرامون آبراهه اصلی و ضعف زیرساخت­ها، مناطق جمعیتی قابل توجهی در معرض بالقوه خطر سیل قرار دارند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
سیلاب
منطق فازی
همپوشانی وزنی
بلوچستان جنوبی
سامانه اطلاعات جغرافیایی

عنوان مقاله English

Comparison of Results of GIS-Based Multicriteria Decision Analysis and Remote Sensing Indicators in Kahir River Basin, Iran.

نویسندگان English

Alireza Khosravi
Mehdi Azhdary Moghaddam
Seyed Arman Hashemi Monfared
Hamid Nazaripour
University of Sistan and Baluchestan
چکیده English



Comparison of Results of GIS-Based Multicriteria Decision Analysis and Remote Sensing Indicators in Kahir River Basin, Iran.



Alireza Khosravi1, Mehdi Azhdary Moghaddam2*, Seyed Arman Hashemi Monfared3,

Hamid Nazaripour4



1. M.Sc. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

2. Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

3. Associate professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

4.Assistant professor, Department of Physical Geography, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran.





Abstract

Flood risk maps and Flood zoning techniques are useful tools to manage this hazard in the catchment and mitigation of flood impacts. In South Baluchestan and Kahir Basin, due to the existence of winter and summer precipitation regimes, the occurrence of flash floods is inevitable due to the establishment of rural communities and settlements in flood-prone areas, the flooding has caused many damages to the region's vulnerable population. In order to zone flood risk and prepare flood risk maps, climatic data, hydrological, land cover, and topography of the basin were prepared from reliable sources and according to scientific studies, 12 variables affecting flood risk in the form of five main components (Hydrology, vegetation, land cover, climate, and topography) were prepared. According to the regional conditions of the basin, using the opinions of experts based on scientific methods, the weight of each variable and component was determined by Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP). Using two methods of fuzzy overlay, Weighted Overlay, and the Geographical Information System facilities, a map of variables and components was prepared after reclassification and fuzzy membership function with appropriate operators. The results showed that the fuzzy overlay method concerning its dominant logic has a better distinction of flood-prone areas and can help determine flood hazard micro-zonation in the drainage basins like the Kahir basin. By comparing the results from the real data of the January 2020 flood obtained from satellite images. Due to poor infrastructure and high economic, the risk of flooding may be more harmful and widespread in the future.



Keywords: Flood, Fuzzy logic, Weighted overlay, Southern Baluchestan, GIS.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Flood
Fuzzy logic
Weighted overlay
Southern Baluchestan
GIS
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