تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

بکارگیری فناوری های کشاورزی اقلیم هوشمند در مزارع گندم؛ طراحی مدل قصد رفتاری با رویکرد بیزی

نویسندگان
گروه اقتصاد، ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
تغییر اقلیم در ایران باعث کاهش بارندگی، افزایش درجه حرارت و خشکسالی ­های مستمر گردیده است. تولید کشاورزی در ایران متاثر از تغییر اقلیم با کاهش میزان تولید محصولاتی مانند گندم مواجه شده است. با توجه به سیاست دولت در خودکفایی تولید گندم و ایجاد امنیت غذایی پایدار استفاده از فناوری­ های کشاورزی اقلیم هوشمند برای مقابله با اثرات تغییر اقلیم ضرورت دارد. هدف این مطالعه طراحی الگوی رفتاری بکارگیری فناوری­ های کشاورزی اقلیم هوشمند با تاکید روی انگیزه می­ باشد. روش این پژوهش کمی، از نظر هدف کاربردی و داده­ های تحقیق از طریق پرسشنامه جمع آوری گردیده است. برای آزمون مدل و فرضیه ­ها از مدل­سازی معادلات ساختاری بیزی استفاده شد. جامعه آماری این پژوهش 800 گندمکار شهرستان نظرآباد استان البرز می­ باشد. حجم نمونه از طریق فرمول کوکران 260 نفر و روش نمونه­ گیری تصادفی از نوع طبقه­ ای با انتساب متناسب تعیین شد. نتایج نشان داد هنجارهای شخصی(0/453)، هنجارهای ذهنی(0/221) و کنترل رفتاری درک شده(0/185) بترتیب موثرترین متغیرها بر قصد بکارگیری فناوری­ های کشاورزی اقلیم هوشمند می ­باشند. گویه استفاده از کشاورزی حفاظتی در سال آینده در قصد بکارگیری فناوری ­های کشاورزی اقلیم هوشمند، گویه استفاده از این فناوری ها بدلیل تاثیر افراد فامیل در هنجارهای ذهنی، گویه احساس بهتر و موثرتر بودن در استفاده از این فناوری ها در هنجارهای شخصی و گویه دسترسی به آموزشهای مربوط به فناوری های کشاورزی اقلیم هوشمند در کنترل رفتاری درک شده، بیشترین تاثیر را روی رفتار بکارگیری فناوری­ های کشاورزی اقلیم هوشمند دارند.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

Applying climate smart agricultural technologies in wheat fields; designing behavioral intention model with Bayesian method

نویسندگان English

Seyyed Mohammad Khademi Nosh Abadi
Maryam Omidi Najaf Abadi
Seyyed Mehdi Mirdamadi
Department of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Education, Science and Research branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

Industrial and agricultural activities in the world have led to an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrogen oxide and have caused the earth's climate to become warmer. This phenomenon has caused climate change and has changed the thermal and rainfall patterns. Climate change in Iran in recent years has caused a decrease in rainfall and an increase in temperature and continuous droughts. Agricultural production in Iran has been affected by climate change and has faced a decrease in the production of crops such as wheat. Therefore, according to the government's policy of self-sufficiency in wheat production and the establishment of sustainable food security in the country, it is necessary to use climate smart agricultural technologies to sustainably increase agricultural productivity, Adapting and resilience of agriculture to climate change and reduction greenhouse gases emission from agriculture. The purpose of this study was to design a behavioral model for the use of climate smart agricultural technologies with an emphasis on motivation. The research method was quantitative, in terms of practical purpose, and research data was collected through a cross-sectional survey.The conceptual model was designed using the theory of planned behavior and the theory of norm activation. Bayesian structural equation modeling was used to test the model and hypotheses. The statistical population of this research was 800 wheat farmers of Nazarabad city, Alborz province. The sample size was calculated using Cochran formula 260 people, and stratified random sampling method with proportional assignment was determined as the sampling method. A researcher-made questionnaire was used to collect research data. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed through agricultural extension and education experts, and its reliability was also confirmed through the pre-test and calculation of Cronbach's alpha coefficient. The findings of the research show that subjective norms, personal norms and perceived behavioral control related to the use of climate smart agricultural technologies have a significant effect on the intention to use these technologies. While the attitude towards the use of climate smart agricultural technologies do not have a significant effect on the intention to use these technologies. The variable of intention to use climate smart agricultural technologies also has a significant effect on the behavior of using these technologies.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Climate Change
Climate smart agriculture
Theory of Planned Behavior
theory of norm activation
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