تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

رابطه فضایی متغیرهای اقلیمی با عملکرد برنج و گندم (مطالعه موردی: سواحل جنوبی خزر)

نویسندگان
علی اکبر شمسی پور
حدیث صادقی
حسین محمدی
مصطفی کریمی
دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران
چکیده
اقلیم از عوامل تعیین­کننده در کمیت و کیفیت تولید محصولات کشاورزی است، این پژوهش ارتباط میان عناصر اقلیمی بارش و دما به عنوان متغیرهای مستقل با عملکرد برنج 40 شهرستان و گندم30 شهرستان به عنوان متغیرهای وابسته در سواحل جنوبی دریای خزر در طول دوره آماری 1379-1395 واکاوی شد. با استفاده از آزمون خودهمبستگی موران و رگرسیون وزن­دار جغرافیایی تحلیل­های آمار فضایی انجام شد. براساس نتایج حاصل از شاخص موران به­ترتیب به­میزان 434821/0z= برای برنج و719571/0z= برای گندم نشان داد که الگوی توزیع فضایی عملکرد برنج و گندم دارای الگوی خوشه­­ای است. تأثیر مثبت بارش در عملکرد برنج در شرق دریای خزر با دامنه ضرایب رگرسیون020/0 تا 540/0 قابل توجه است؛ همچنین نتایج حاکی از رابطه منفی میان متغیر دما با عملکرد برنج در جنوب­شرق و شرق و اثر مثبت آن بر عملکرد برنج در دیگر نواحی بود. تأثیر بارش بر عملکرد گندم در غرب و مرکز منطقه با دامنه ضرایب رگرسیون 481/0- تا 871/0- منفی بدست آمد. همچنین نتایج حاکی از رابطه منفی دما با عملکرد گندم در شرق و جنوب­شرقی نوار ساحلی و رابطه مثبت دما با عملکرد گندم در دیگر مناطق بود. در نهایت نتایج حاکی از آن بود که در بخش­های غربی و مرکزی به علت بارش فراوان و تعداد ساعات آفتابی کم افزایش در مقدار دما مطلوب­تر از افزایش مقدار بارش است و در نواحی شرقی و جنوب­شرق منطقه که میزان بارش آن پایین­تر از آستانه مورد نیاز برنج و گندم است افزایش در میزان بارش مطلوب­تر است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
آمار فضایی
تخمین عملکرد محصول
رگرسیون وزن‌دار جغرافیایی
برنج
گندم

عنوان مقاله English

Spatial relationship of climatic variables with rice and wheat yield (Case study: Southern Caspian shore)

نویسندگان English

Aliakbar Shamsipour
Hadis Sadeghi
Hosein Mohammadi
Mostafa Karimi
Physical Geography Department, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran
چکیده English

Climate is one of the determining factors in the quantity and quality of agricultural products, therefore, in this study, the relationship between precipitation and temperature (as explanatory variables) with rice yield in 40 cities and wheat yield in 30 cities (as dependent variables) was investigated in the Caspian coastal area during 2000-2017. Spatial statistical analyses were performed with using the Moran autocorrelation test and geographically weighted regression. Based on the results (Moran index, z = 0.4342121 for rice and z = 0.719571 for wheat, respectively), it was revealed that the spatial distribution pattern of rice and wheat yield had a cluster pattern. The results of the geographic weighted regression analysis showed that the temperature increase was more desirable than the precipitation increase so the increasing temperature could lead to yield increases. In the eastern parts of the study area, the positive effect of precipitation on rice yield (with 0.020 to 0.540 regression coefficients) was remarkable; the results also revealed a negative relationship between temperature and rice yield in the southeast and eastern parts and a positive effect on rice yield in other areas. Also, the effect of precipitation on wheat yield was negative in the west and central parts of the study area (with -0.481 to -0.871 regression coefficients). According to the results, a negative relationship was dominant between temperature and wheat yield in the east and southeastern parts of the study area and a positive relationship was detected in other areas. Finally, the results indicated that in the western and central parts, due to heavy rainfall and a low number of sunny hours, an increase in temperature is more favourable than an increase in rainfall. In the eastern and southeastern regions of the region, where the amount of precipitation is lower than the threshold required for rice and wheat, an increase in precipitation is more desirable.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Spatial Statistics
Crop yield estimation
Geographical weight regression
Rice
Wheat
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