تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

تحلیل استعداد رخداد جریان‌های واریزه‌ای و ‌لغزش‌های کم‌عمق با استفاده از مدل تریگرز (TRIGRS) (مطالعه موردی: حوضۀ آبخیز بابل‌رود مازندران)

نویسندگان
دانشگاه تهران
چکیده
در این مطالعه، به بررسی پتانسیل وقوع زمین‌لغزش‌های کم‌عمق ناشی از بارندگی در حوضۀ آبریز سجادرود پرداخته شده است. در این حوضه به دلیل توپوگرافی کوهستانی (شیب تند دامنه‌ها) و وجود خاک‌های حاوی مواد آلی به صورت طبیعی پتانسیل رخداد اینگونه زمین‌لغزش‌های ناشی از بارندگی زیاد است و سالانه زمین‌لغزش‌هایی با ابعاد مختلف بعد از وقوع بارندگی‌های شدید و طولانی‌مدت در آن رخ می‌دهد. این زمین‌لغزش‌ها که با مکانیسم لغزش در بخش‌های بالایی پوشش خاک آغاز می‌‌شوند، بلافاصله تبدیل به جریان‌های گلی-واریزه‌ای شده و از به هم پیوستن آنها ممکن است جریان‌های واریزه‌ای-گلی بزرگ در پایین‌دست حوضه شکل بگیرد که پدیده‌ای مخرب محسوب می‌شود. در این پژوهش، برای بررسی تأثیر بارندگی بر وقوع زمین‌لغزش‌های کم‌عمق و جریان‌های واریزه‌ای-گِلی از برنامۀ تریگرز (TRIGRS) که برنامه‌ای نسبتاً جامع و مبتنی بر شبکه برای تحلیل پایداری شیب به روش شیب بی‌نهایت (در مقیاس ناحیه‌ای) است، استفاده شده است. در این برنامه اثر نفوذ آب باران در خاک و رواناب ناشی از بارندگی که پارامترهایی مهم در ایجاد زمین‌لغزش‌های کم‌عمق و متعاقب آن جریان‌های واریزه‌ای-گلی هستند نیز به طور کامل در نظر گرفته می‌شود و این پدیدۀ طبیعی به طور کامل شبیه‌سازی می‌گردد. داده های ورودی مورد نیاز برای این پژوهش شامل داده‌های توپوگرافی حوضه، ویژگی‌های زمین‌شناسی، زمین‌شناسی مهندسی و هیدروژئولوژیکی واحدهای خاکی (زون‌های زمین‌شناسی) و داده‌های مربوط به بارش در منطقه است که از منابع مختلف تهیه و در قالب فایل‌های متنی و نقشه‌های GIS مناسب مرتب‌سازی شده و مورد استفاده قرار گرفته‌اند. خروجی برنامۀ تریگرز شامل نقشه‌های توزیع مکانی حداقل ضریب ایمنی پایداری، عمق وقوع لغزش و فشار آب منفذی در عمق وقوع لغزش هستند که در قالب فایل‌های متنی تهیه و بعد از ترسیم در نرم‌افزارهای مبتنی بر GIS قابل تفسیر هستند. نتایج این مطالعه نشان داد که در بخش‌های مرتفع و پرشیب حوضه هرجا که خاک‌هایی با سنگ‌بستر از جنس سنگ‌های غنی از کانی‌های رسی (مثل گلسنگ، مارن و شیل) گسترش بیشتری دارند، پتانسیل رخداد ‌لغزش‌های کم‌عمق ناشی از بارندگی بالاست و با وقوع بارندگی‌های با شدت بالا و مدت طولانی، این نوع زمین‌لغزش‌ها رخ خواهند داد که در صورت نزدیکی به سکونتگاه‌ها و جاده‌ها می‌توانند ریسک بالایی برای آنها داشته باشند. در بررسی‌های صحرایی صورت گرفته، همخوانی خوبی میان نتایج این مطالعه با تجربیات حاصل از مشاهدات صحرایی زمین‌لغزش‌های ناشی از بارندگی در منطقه از نظر توزیع مکانی و زمان وقوع آنها به دست آمد.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

Analysis of occurrence potential of the earth/debris flow and shallow landslides using the TRIGRS model (Case study: babolrood Basin, Mazandaran)

نویسندگان English

Ali Abdinezhad
Mojtaba Yamani
Jafar Hassanpour
Abolghasem Goorabi
Mostafa Karimi AhmadAbad
University of Tehran
چکیده English

Analysis of occurrence potential of the earth/debris flow and

shallow landslides using the TRIGRS model

(Case study: Babolrood Basin, Mazandaran)


In this study, the occurrence potential of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the Babolrood basin has been investigated. In this basin, due to the mountainous topography and the presence of loose organic soils, the potential of such landslides is high, and landslides of different sizes occur every year after long and intense rainfalls. These landslides, which start with the sliding mechanism in the upper parts of the soil cover, immediately turn into earth/debris flows, and from their joining together, large flows may form downstream of the basin, which is considered a destructive phenomenon. In this research, to investigate the effect of rainfall on the occurrence of shallow landslides and flows, the TRIGRS program, which is a comprehensive and grid-based program for slope stability analysis using the infinite slope method, has been used. In this program, the effect of rainwater penetration into the soil and runoff caused by rainfall, which are important parameters in the occurrence of shallow landslides and subsequent flows, are also fully considered and this natural phenomenon is fully simulated. The input data required for this research includes topographical data of the basin, geological and hydrogeological properties of soil units, and rainfall data in the region, which are prepared in the form of appropriate text files and GIS maps. The output of the Triggers program includes maps of the spatial distribution of the minimum safety factor, the depth of the failure, and the pore water pressure at the failure depth, which are prepared in the form of text files and can be interpreted in GIS-based software. The results of this study showed that in the high and steep parts of the basin, wherever there are soils on a bedrock rich in clay minerals (such as mudstone, marl, and shale), the potential for shallow rainfall-induced landslides is high. In the field studies, a good agreement between the results of this study and the experiences obtained from field observations of landslides caused by rainfall in the region was obtained in terms of their spatial distribution and time of occurrence.

Keywords: Shallow landslide; Pore pressure; Rainfall-induced landslide


کلیدواژه‌ها English

Shallow landslide
Pore pressure
Rainfall-induced landslide
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1) پژوهشکدۀ سوانح طبیعی (1398الف) گزارش مطالعات مطالعات پایدارسازی روستای ازارسی در برابر خطر زمین لغزش (شهرستان بابل، استان مازندران)، منتشر نشده.
2) پژوهشکدۀ سوانح طبیعی (1398ب) گزارش مطالعات مطالعات پایدارسازی روستای ارکا در برابر خطر زمین لغزش (شهرستان بابل، استان مازندران)، منتشر نشده.
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1) پژوهشکدۀ سوانح طبیعی (1398الف) گزارش مطالعات مطالعات پایدارسازی روستای ازارسی در برابر خطر زمین لغزش (شهرستان بابل، استان مازندران)، منتشر نشده.
1) پژوهشکدۀ سوانح طبیعی (1398الف) گزارش مطالعات مطالعات پایدارسازی روستای ازارسی در برابر خطر زمین لغزش (شهرستان بابل، استان مازندران)، منتشر نشده.
2) پژوهشکدۀ سوانح طبیعی (1398ب) گزارش مطالعات مطالعات پایدارسازی روستای ارکا در برابر خطر زمین لغزش (شهرستان بابل، استان مازندران)، منتشر نشده.
2) پژوهشکدۀ سوانح طبیعی (1398ب) گزارش مطالعات مطالعات پایدارسازی روستای ارکا در برابر خطر زمین لغزش (شهرستان بابل، استان مازندران)، منتشر نشده.
3) Alvioli, M.; M., Melillo; F., Guzzetti; M., Rossi; E., Palazzi; J., Von Hardenberg; M.T., Brunetti and S., Peruccacci. 2018. Implications of climate change on landslide hazard in Central Italy. Science of the Total Environment, 630:1528–1543. [DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.315]
3) Alvioli, M.; M., Melillo; F., Guzzetti; M., Rossi; E., Palazzi; J., Von Hardenberg; M.T., Brunetti and S., Peruccacci. 2018. Implications of climate change on landslide hazard in Central Italy. Science of the Total Environment, 630:1528–1543. [DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.315]
4) Baum, R.L.; W.Z., Savage and J.W., Godt. 2002. TRIGRS—A Fortran program for transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope stability analysis: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 02-0424.
4) Baum, R.L.; W.Z., Savage and J.W., Godt. 2002. TRIGRS—A Fortran program for transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope stability analysis: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 02-0424.
5) Baum, R.L.; W.Z., Savage and J.W., Godt. 2008. TRIGRS—A Fortran Program for Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis, Version 2.0: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2008–1159.
5) Baum, R.L.; W.Z., Savage and J.W., Godt. 2008. TRIGRS—A Fortran Program for Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis, Version 2.0: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2008–1159.
6) Baum, R.L.; J.W., Godt and W.Z., Savage. 2010. Estimating the timing and location of shallow rainfall-induced landslides using a model for transient, unsaturated infiltration, Journal of Geophysical Research, 115(3): 1-26.
6) Baum, R.L.; J.W., Godt and W.Z., Savage. 2010. Estimating the timing and location of shallow rainfall-induced landslides using a model for transient, unsaturated infiltration, Journal of Geophysical Research, 115(3): 1-26.
7) Brabb, E. and B., Harrod. 1989. Landslides: Extent and Economic Significance, A. A. Balkema Publisher, Rotterdam: 385.
7) Brabb, E. and B., Harrod. 1989. Landslides: Extent and Economic Significance, A. A. Balkema Publisher, Rotterdam: 385.
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