تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

دسته‌بندی بارش‌ها‌ی تداومی غرب ایران بر اساس فراوانی رخداد به روش لمب- جنکینسون

نویسندگان
دانشگاه رازی
چکیده
وقوع بارندگی تداومی، نتیجۀ ادغام سیستم‌‌‌‌‌ها‌ی چرخشی چند مقیاسی، مستعد بارندگی سنگین تا شدید هستند. از این رو به سبب ایجاد بلایایی مانند سیل و رانش زمین، و خصوصاً مدیریت منابع آب برای مصارف کشاورزی بسیار حائز اهمیت می­باشد. در این پژوهش بارش‌ها‌ی تداومی به بارش‌ها‌یی اطلاق ‌می‌گردد که حداقل 3 روز تداوم داشته و میزان آن‌ها‌ از 1 میلی­متر بیشتر باشد. هدف از این پژوهش شناسایی و طبقه‌بندی این دسته از بارش‌ها‌ برای منطقه غرب ایران در دورۀ آماری 30 ساله (1993 تا 2022) به روش لمب - جنکینسون می‌باشد. در این روش مختصات مرکزی منطقه مورد مطالعه به عنوان نقطۀ مرجع در محاسبات مورد استفاده قرار ‌می‌گیرد. 16 نقطۀ دیگر نیز اطراف نقطۀ مرجع مشخص ‌می‌گردند. سپس با داشتن داده‌ها‌ی لحظه­ای فشار استاندارد سطح دریا برای این نقاط، می­توان مقادیر مربوط به باد ژئوستروفیک و تاوایی را محاسبه نمود. با داشتن این دو کمیت و مقایسۀ مقادیر آن‌‌ها، انواع الگو‌ها‌ی آب‌و‌هوایی در روشL- J که شامل 4 نوع جهت، چرخش، ترکیب، و تعریف نشده است، مشخص و دسته­بندی ‌می‌شوند. با صرف نظر از حالت تعریف نشده، در نهایت مشخص شد که استان­های کرمانشاه، کردستان، همدان، لرستان و ایلام هر کدام به ترتیب دارای 50، 50، 50، 40 و 39 فراوانی مربوط به حالت جهت هستند. همچنین برای هر یک از این استان ها به ترتیب فراوانی 69، 94، 65، 66 و 38 برای حالت چرخش به دست آمد به طوریکه درصد چرخش­های چرخندی برای هر کدام به ترتیب 100، 98، 97، 95 و 97 بود. برای فراوانی مربوط به حالت ترکیبی نیز به ترتیب برای هر استان، فراوانی 49، 53، 43، 41 و 38 مورد به دست آمد.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

Classification of Persistent Rainfall in the West of Iran Based on Frequency of Occurrence Using the Lamb-Jenkinson Method

نویسندگان English

Fatemeh Gheysvandi
Jafar Masoompour Samakosh
Firouz Mojarrad
Aminallah Ghahramani
Razi University
چکیده English

The occurrence of persistent rainfall, resulting from the integration of multi-scale cyclonic systems, is prone to producing heavy to severe precipitation. Therefore, it is highly significant due to its potential to cause disasters such as floods and landslides, as well as its importance in water resource management for agricultural purposes. In this study, persistent rainfall refers to rainfall events lasting at least three consecutive days with a total precipitation of more than 1 millimeter. The aim of this research is to identify and classify these types of rainfall for the western region of Iran over a 30-year statistical period (1993 to 2022) for the first time using the Lamb-Jenkinson method. In this method, the central coordinates of the study area are used as the reference point in the calculations. Sixteen additional points are also determined around the reference point. With the availability of instantaneous standard sea-level pressure data for these points, it becomes possible to calculate the values of geostrophic wind and vorticity. By comparing these two quantities, the types of weather patterns in the L-J method—which include four types: directional, cyclonic, hybrid, and undefined—are identified and categorized. Disregarding the undefined category, it was ultimately determined that the provinces of Kermanshah, Kurdistan, Hamedan, Lorestan, and Ilam each had 50, 50, 50, 40, and 39 occurrences of the directional state, respectively. Moreover, the frequencies of the cyclonic state for these provinces were 69, 94, 65, 66, and 38, respectively, with cyclonic rotation percentages of 100%, 98%, 97%, 95%, and 97%, respectively. As for the hybrid state, the frequencies obtained for each province were 49, 53, 43, 41, and 38, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Persistent Rainfall
Geostrophic Wind
Vorticity
Rotation
Lamb-Jenkinson
West of Iran
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