پیش‌بینی مکانی جنگل‌زدایی در جنگل‌های هیرکانی ایران: تلفیق عوامل اقلیمی، توپوگرافی و انسانی

شعبانی, سعید; محسنی, بهروز; کرنژادی, آیدینگ; احمدی, اکرم; فرامرزی, حسن; سیلاخوری, اسماعیل

doi:10.61882/jsaeh.12.1.45.49

Abdullah, S. A.; and Nakagoshi, N. (2007). Forest fragmentation and its correlation to human land use change in the state of Selangor, peninsular Malaysia. Forest Ecology and Management, 241 (1-3), 39-48. [DOI:10.1016/j.foreco.2006.12.016]

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Abman, R.; and Carney, C. (2020). Land rights, agricultural productivity, and deforestation. Food Policy, 94, 101841. [DOI:10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101841]

Abdullah, S. A.; and Nakagoshi, N. (2007). Forest fragmentation and its correlation to human land use change in the state of Selangor, peninsular Malaysia. Forest Ecology and Management, 241 (1-3), 39-48.

Abman, R.; and Carney, C. (2020). Land rights, agricultural productivity, and deforestation. Food Policy, 94, 101841.

Ahmadi, V. (2018). Using GIS and Artificial Neural Network for Deforestation Prediction. Remote Sensing, 2018030048, pp. 15. https://doi: 10.20944/preprints201803.0048.v1 [DOI:10.20944/preprints201803.0048.v1]

Ahmadi, V. (2018). Using GIS and Artificial Neural Network for Deforestation Prediction. Remote Sensing, 2018030048, pp. 15. https://doi: 10.20944/preprints201803.0048.v1

Bera, B.; Saha, S.; and Bhattacharjee, S. (2020). Forest cover dynamics (1998 to 2019) and prediction of deforestation probability using binary logistic regression (BLR) model of Silabati watershed, India. Trees, Forests and People, 100034.

Bera, B.; Saha, S.; and Bhattacharjee, S. (2020). Forest cover dynamics (1998 to 2019) and prediction of deforestation probability using binary logistic regression (BLR) model of Silabati watershed, India. Trees, Forests and People, 100034. [DOI:10.1016/j.tfp.2020.100034]

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Chen, S.; Woodcock, C.; Dong, L.; Tarrio, K.; Mohammadi, D.; and Olofsson, P. (2024). Review of drivers of forest degradation and deforestation in Southeast Asia. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, 33, 101129, 11 pp.

034

Davison, C. W.; Rahbek, C.; and Morueta-Holme, N. (2021). Land-use change and biodiversity: Challenges for assembling evidence on the greatest threat to nature. Global Change Biology, 27, 5414-5429. https://doi:10.1111/gcb.15846

Chen, S.; Woodcock, C.; Dong, L.; Tarrio, K.; Mohammadi, D.; and Olofsson, P. (2024). Review of drivers of forest degradation and deforestation in Southeast Asia. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, 33, 101129, 11 pp. [DOI:10.1016/j.rsase.2023.101129]

Dutt, S.; Batar, A. K.; Sulik, S.; and Kunz, M. (2024). Forest ecosystem on the edge: Mapping forest fragmentation susceptibility in Tuchola Forest, Poland. Ecological Indicators, 161: 111980.

FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization). (2020). Global Forest Resources Assessment 2020, (Iran Report). Rome, 54 pp. https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/70aae432-4a3e-4d96-9083-f0800bd959af/content

Davison, C. W.; Rahbek, C.; and Morueta-Holme, N. (2021). Land-use change and biodiversity: Challenges for assembling evidence on the greatest threat to nature. Global Change Biology, 27, 5414-5429. https://doi:10.1111/gcb.15846 [DOI:10.1111/gcb.15846]

Feng, Y.; Yang, Q.; Tong, X.; and Chen, L. (2018). Evaluating land ecological security and examining its relationships with driving factors using GIS and generalized additive model. Science of the Total Environment, 633, 1469-1479. https://doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.272

Foley, J. A.; DeFries, R.; Asner, G. P.; Barford, C.C.; Bonan, G.; Carpenter, S. R.; Chapin, F. S.; Coe, M. T.; Daily, G. C.; Gibbs, H.; Helkowski, J. H.; Holloway, T.; Howard, E.; Kucharik, C. J.; Patz, J.; Prentice, I. C.; Ramankutty, N.; and Snyder, P. K. (2005). Global consequences of land use. Science. Science, 309 (5734), 570-574. https://doi: 10.1126/science.11117

Dutt, S.; Batar, A. K.; Sulik, S.; and Kunz, M. (2024). Forest ecosystem on the edge: Mapping forest fragmentation susceptibility in Tuchola Forest, Poland. Ecological Indicators, 161: 111980. [DOI:10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.111980]

Hosonuma, N.; Herold, M.; Sy, V. D.; Fries, R. S. D.; Brockhaus, M.; Verchot, L.; Angelsen, A.; and Romijn, E. (2012). An assessment of deforestation and forest degradation drivers in developing countries. Environmental Research Letters, 7 (4), 044009. https://doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044009

Jellouli, O.; and Bernoussi, A.S. (2022). The impact of dynamic wind flow behavior on forest fire spread using cellular automata: Application to the watershed BOUKHALEF (Morocco). Ecological Modelling, 468, 109938.

FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization). (2020). Global Forest Resources Assessment 2020, (Iran Report). Rome, 54 pp. https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/70aae432-4a3e-4d96-9083-f0800bd959af/content

Kayet, N.; Pathak, K.; Kumar, S.; Singh, C.P.; Chowdary, V.M.; Chakrabarty, A.; Sinha, N.; Shaik, I.; Ghosh A. (2021). Deforestation susceptibility assessment and prediction in hilltop mining-affected forest region. Journal of Environmental Management, 112504.

Feng, Y.; Yang, Q.; Tong, X.; and Chen, L. (2018). Evaluating land ecological security and examining its relationships with driving factors using GIS and generalized additive model. Science of the Total Environment, 633, 1469-1479. https://doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.272 [DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.272]

Knapp, M.; Strobl, M.; Venturo, A.; Seidl, M.; Jakubíkova, L.; Tajovský, K.; Kadlec, T.; and Gonzalez, E. (2022). Importance of grassy and forest non-crop habitat islands for overwintering of ground-dwelling arthropods in agricultural landscapes: A multi-taxa approach. Biological Conservation, 275, 109757.

Laurance, W.F.; Goosem, M.; and Laurance, S.G.W. (2009). Impacts of roads and linear clearings on tropical forests. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 24 (12), 659-669. https://doi:10.1016/j.tree.2009.06.009

Foley, J. A.; DeFries, R.; Asner, G. P.; Barford, C.C.; Bonan, G.; Carpenter, S. R.; Chapin, F. S.; Coe, M. T.; Daily, G. C.; Gibbs, H.; Helkowski, J. H.; Holloway, T.; Howard, E.; Kucharik, C. J.; Patz, J.; Prentice, I. C.; Ramankutty, N.; and Snyder, P. K. (2005). Global consequences of land use. Science. Science, 309 (5734), 570-574. https://doi: 10.1126/science.11117 [DOI:10.1126/science.1111772]

Looze, B.E. (2009). Forest fragmentation patterns in Maine watersheds and prediction of visible crown diameter in recent undisturbed forest, MSc thesis, University of Wisconsin-Superior, 130 pp. https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2772&context=etd

López, S. 2022. Deforestation, forest degradation, and land use dynamics in the Northeastern Ecuadorian Amazon. Applied Geography, 145, 102749.

Hosonuma, N.; Herold, M.; Sy, V. D.; Fries, R. S. D.; Brockhaus, M.; Verchot, L.; Angelsen, A.; and Romijn, E. (2012). An assessment of deforestation and forest degradation drivers in developing countries. Environmental Research Letters, 7 (4), 044009. https://doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044009 [DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044009]

López-Bedoya, P. A.; Bohada-Murillo, M.; Ángel-Vallejo, M. C.; Audino, L. D.; Davis, A. L. V.; Gurr, G.; and Noriega, J. A. (2022). Primary forest loss and degradation reduces biodiversity and ecosystem functioning: A global meta-analysis using dung beetles as an indicator taxon. Journal of Applied Ecology, 59, 1572-1585.

Mirakhorlou, Kh.; and Akhavan, R. (2017). Area changes of Hyrcanian Forests during 2004 to 2016. Nature Iran, 2 (3), 40-45. https://doi:10.22092/irn.2017.112967 (in Persian)

Jellouli, O.; and Bernoussi, A.S. (2022). The impact of dynamic wind flow behavior on forest fire spread using cellular automata: Application to the watershed BOUKHALEF (Morocco). Ecological Modelling, 468, 109938. [DOI:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.109938]

Netzel, P.; Tyminska, L.; Feleha, D. D.; Socha, J. (2024). New approach to assess forest fragmentation based on multiscale similarity index. Ecological Indicators, 158, 111530. https://doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.111530

Ojoatre, S.; Zhang, C.; Yesuf, G.; and Rufino, M.C. (2023). Mapping deforestation and recovery of tropical montane forests of East Africa. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 11, 1084764. 17 pp. https://www.10.3389/fenvs.2023.1084764

Kayet, N.; Pathak, K.; Kumar, S.; Singh, C.P.; Chowdary, V.M.; Chakrabarty, A.; Sinha, N.; Shaik, I.; Ghosh A. (2021). Deforestation susceptibility assessment and prediction in hilltop mining-affected forest region. Journal of Environmental Management, 112504. [DOI:10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112504]

Sahana, M.; Hong, H.; Sajjad, H.; Liu, J.; and Zhu, A.X. (2018). Assessing deforestation susceptibility to forest ecosystem in Rudraprayag district, India using fragmentation approach and frequency ratio model. Science of the Total Environment, 627, 1264-1275.

Knapp, M.; Strobl, M.; Venturo, A.; Seidl, M.; Jakubíkova, L.; Tajovský, K.; Kadlec, T.; and Gonzalez, E. (2022). Importance of grassy and forest non-crop habitat islands for overwintering of ground-dwelling arthropods in agricultural landscapes: A multi-taxa approach. Biological Conservation, 275, 109757. [DOI:10.1016/j.biocon.2022.109757]

Silva, A.C.O.; Fonseca, L.M.G.; Körting, T.S.; and Escada, M.I.S. (2020). A spatio-temporal Bayesian Network approach for deforestation prediction in an Amazon rainforest expansion frontier. Spatial Statistics, 35, 100393.

Silvério, D. V.; Brando, P. M.; Bustamante, M. M. C.; Putz, F. E.; Marra, D. M.; Levick, S. R.; and Trumbore, S. E. (2019). Fire, fragmentation, and windstorms: A recipe for tropical forest degradation. Journal of Ecology, 107 (2), 656-667.

Laurance, W.F.; Goosem, M.; and Laurance, S.G.W. (2009). Impacts of roads and linear clearings on tropical forests. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 24 (12), 659-669. https://doi:10.1016/j.tree.2009.06.009 [DOI:10.1016/j.tree.2009.06.009]

Tavares das Neves, P. B.; Blanco, C. J. C.; Duarte, A. A. A. M.; das Neves, F. B. S.; das Neves, L. B. S.; de Paula dos Santos, M. H. (2021). Amazon rainforest deforestation influenced by clandestine and regular roadway network. Land Use Policy, 108, 105510.

Worku, A. (2023). Review on drivers of deforestation and associated socio-economic and ecological impacts. Advances in Agriculture. Food Science and Forestry, 11 (1), 1-12. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Yakhkeshi, A.; and Aftabtalab, N. (2008). Renewable resources and sustainable development. Department of Environment press, 176 pp. (in Persian)

Looze, B.E. (2009). Forest fragmentation patterns in Maine watersheds and prediction of visible crown diameter in recent undisturbed forest, MSc thesis, University of Wisconsin-Superior, 130 pp. https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2772&context=etd

Yamamoto, Y.; Shigetomi, Y.; Ishimura, Y. and Hattori, M. (2019). Forest change and agricultural productivity: Evidence from Indonesia. World Development, 114, 196-207. https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/wdevel/v114y2019icp196-207.html

López, S. 2022. Deforestation, forest degradation, and land use dynamics in the Northeastern Ecuadorian Amazon. Applied Geography, 145, 102749. [DOI:10.1016/j.apgeog.2022.102749]

Abdullah, S. A.; and Nakagoshi, N. (2007). Forest fragmentation and its correlation to human land use change in the state of Selangor, peninsular Malaysia. Forest Ecology and Management, 241 (1-3), 39-48.

Abman, R.; and Carney, C. (2020). Land rights, agricultural productivity, and deforestation. Food Policy, 94, 101841.

López-Bedoya, P. A.; Bohada-Murillo, M.; Ángel-Vallejo, M. C.; Audino, L. D.; Davis, A. L. V.; Gurr, G.; and Noriega, J. A. (2022). Primary forest loss and degradation reduces biodiversity and ecosystem functioning: A global meta-analysis using dung beetles as an indicator taxon. Journal of Applied Ecology, 59, 1572-1585. [DOI:10.1111/1365-2664.14167]

Ahmadi, V. (2018). Using GIS and Artificial Neural Network for Deforestation Prediction. Remote Sensing, 2018030048, pp. 15. https://doi: 10.20944/preprints201803.0048.v1

Bera, B.; Saha, S.; and Bhattacharjee, S. (2020). Forest cover dynamics (1998 to 2019) and prediction of deforestation probability using binary logistic regression (BLR) model of Silabati watershed, India. Trees, Forests and People, 100034.

Mirakhorlou, Kh.; and Akhavan, R. (2017). Area changes of Hyrcanian Forests during 2004 to 2016. Nature Iran, 2 (3), 40-45. https://doi:10.22092/irn.2017.112967 (in Persian)

034

Netzel, P.; Tyminska, L.; Feleha, D. D.; Socha, J. (2024). New approach to assess forest fragmentation based on multiscale similarity index. Ecological Indicators, 158, 111530. https://doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.111530 [DOI:10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.111530]

Chen, S.; Woodcock, C.; Dong, L.; Tarrio, K.; Mohammadi, D.; and Olofsson, P. (2024). Review of drivers of forest degradation and deforestation in Southeast Asia. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, 33, 101129, 11 pp.

Davison, C. W.; Rahbek, C.; and Morueta-Holme, N. (2021). Land-use change and biodiversity: Challenges for assembling evidence on the greatest threat to nature. Global Change Biology, 27, 5414-5429. https://doi:10.1111/gcb.15846

Ojoatre, S.; Zhang, C.; Yesuf, G.; and Rufino, M.C. (2023). Mapping deforestation and recovery of tropical montane forests of East Africa. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 11, 1084764. 17 pp. https://www.10.3389/fenvs.2023.1084764 [DOI:10.3389/fenvs.2023.1084764]

Dutt, S.; Batar, A. K.; Sulik, S.; and Kunz, M. (2024). Forest ecosystem on the edge: Mapping forest fragmentation susceptibility in Tuchola Forest, Poland. Ecological Indicators, 161: 111980.

FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization). (2020). Global Forest Resources Assessment 2020, (Iran Report). Rome, 54 pp. https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/70aae432-4a3e-4d96-9083-f0800bd959af/content

Sahana, M.; Hong, H.; Sajjad, H.; Liu, J.; and Zhu, A.X. (2018). Assessing deforestation susceptibility to forest ecosystem in Rudraprayag district, India using fragmentation approach and frequency ratio model. Science of the Total Environment, 627, 1264-1275. [DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.290]

Feng, Y.; Yang, Q.; Tong, X.; and Chen, L. (2018). Evaluating land ecological security and examining its relationships with driving factors using GIS and generalized additive model. Science of the Total Environment, 633, 1469-1479. https://doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.272

Foley, J. A.; DeFries, R.; Asner, G. P.; Barford, C.C.; Bonan, G.; Carpenter, S. R.; Chapin, F. S.; Coe, M. T.; Daily, G. C.; Gibbs, H.; Helkowski, J. H.; Holloway, T.; Howard, E.; Kucharik, C. J.; Patz, J.; Prentice, I. C.; Ramankutty, N.; and Snyder, P. K. (2005). Global consequences of land use. Science. Science, 309 (5734), 570-574. https://doi: 10.1126/science.11117

Sahana, M.; Hong, H.; Sajjad, H.; Liu, J.; and Zhu, A.X. (2018). Assessing deforestation susceptibility to forest ecosystem in Rudraprayag district, India using fragmentation approach and frequency ratio model. Science of the Total Environment, 627, 1264-1275. [DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.290]

Hosonuma, N.; Herold, M.; Sy, V. D.; Fries, R. S. D.; Brockhaus, M.; Verchot, L.; Angelsen, A.; and Romijn, E. (2012). An assessment of deforestation and forest degradation drivers in developing countries. Environmental Research Letters, 7 (4), 044009. https://doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044009

Jellouli, O.; and Bernoussi, A.S. (2022). The impact of dynamic wind flow behavior on forest fire spread using cellular automata: Application to the watershed BOUKHALEF (Morocco). Ecological Modelling, 468, 109938.

Silva, A.C.O.; Fonseca, L.M.G.; Körting, T.S.; and Escada, M.I.S. (2020). A spatio-temporal Bayesian Network approach for deforestation prediction in an Amazon rainforest expansion frontier. Spatial Statistics, 35, 100393. [DOI:10.1016/j.spasta.2019.100393]

Kayet, N.; Pathak, K.; Kumar, S.; Singh, C.P.; Chowdary, V.M.; Chakrabarty, A.; Sinha, N.; Shaik, I.; Ghosh A. (2021). Deforestation susceptibility assessment and prediction in hilltop mining-affected forest region. Journal of Environmental Management, 112504.

Knapp, M.; Strobl, M.; Venturo, A.; Seidl, M.; Jakubíkova, L.; Tajovský, K.; Kadlec, T.; and Gonzalez, E. (2022). Importance of grassy and forest non-crop habitat islands for overwintering of ground-dwelling arthropods in agricultural landscapes: A multi-taxa approach. Biological Conservation, 275, 109757.

Silvério, D. V.; Brando, P. M.; Bustamante, M. M. C.; Putz, F. E.; Marra, D. M.; Levick, S. R.; and Trumbore, S. E. (2019). Fire, fragmentation, and windstorms: A recipe for tropical forest degradation. Journal of Ecology, 107 (2), 656-667. [DOI:10.1111/1365-2745.13076]

Laurance, W.F.; Goosem, M.; and Laurance, S.G.W. (2009). Impacts of roads and linear clearings on tropical forests. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 24 (12), 659-669. https://doi:10.1016/j.tree.2009.06.009

Looze, B.E. (2009). Forest fragmentation patterns in Maine watersheds and prediction of visible crown diameter in recent undisturbed forest, MSc thesis, University of Wisconsin-Superior, 130 pp. https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2772&context=etd

Tavares das Neves, P. B.; Blanco, C. J. C.; Duarte, A. A. A. M.; das Neves, F. B. S.; das Neves, L. B. S.; de Paula dos Santos, M. H. (2021). Amazon rainforest deforestation influenced by clandestine and regular roadway network. Land Use Policy, 108, 105510. [DOI:10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105510]

López, S. 2022. Deforestation, forest degradation, and land use dynamics in the Northeastern Ecuadorian Amazon. Applied Geography, 145, 102749.

López-Bedoya, P. A.; Bohada-Murillo, M.; Ángel-Vallejo, M. C.; Audino, L. D.; Davis, A. L. V.; Gurr, G.; and Noriega, J. A. (2022). Primary forest loss and degradation reduces biodiversity and ecosystem functioning: A global meta-analysis using dung beetles as an indicator taxon. Journal of Applied Ecology, 59, 1572-1585.

Worku, A. (2023). Review on drivers of deforestation and associated socio-economic and ecological impacts. Advances in Agriculture. Food Science and Forestry, 11 (1), 1-12. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Yakhkeshi, A.; and Aftabtalab, N. (2008). Renewable resources and sustainable development. Department of Environment press, 176 pp. (in Persian)

Mirakhorlou, Kh.; and Akhavan, R. (2017). Area changes of Hyrcanian Forests during 2004 to 2016. Nature Iran, 2 (3), 40-45. https://doi:10.22092/irn.2017.112967 (in Persian)

Yamamoto, Y.; Shigetomi, Y.; Ishimura, Y. and Hattori, M. (2019). Forest change and agricultural productivity: Evidence from Indonesia. World Development, 114, 196-207. https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/wdevel/v114y2019icp196-207.html [DOI:10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.10.001]