تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

ارزیابی آسیب‌‌پذیری مقاصد گردشگرپذیر شهرستان طارم در برابر مخاطرات طبیعی

نویسندگان
مریم محمدلو
جمشید عینالی
کوهزاد رئیس پور
محمدجواد عباسی
قمر عباسی
دانشگاه زنجان
10.61882/jsaeh.12.1.45.63
چکیده
هدف: شهرستان طارم به دلیل ویژگی‌‌های طبیعی و جغرافیایی در معرض مخاطرات طبیعی چون سیل، زلزله و حرکات دامنه‌‌ای است. با توجه به گردشگرپذیری این منطقه، توجه به امر کنترل و مدیریت ریسک ناشی از آن، ضروری است که جهت تحقق این امر مهم شناخت و الویت‌‌بندی مخاطرات طبیعی موجود و پهنه‌‌بندی آن‌‌ها اولین گام در این زمینه می‌‌باشد.

روش پژوهش: در این پژوهش، در ابتدای امر در راستای شناسایی مخاطرات غالب و میزان اهمیت پیامدهایشان چک لیست و ماتریس ریسک تهیه شد و برای اخذ اجماع گروهی نظرات قابل اعتماد از پرسش‌‌نامۀ دلفی (10 نفر از متخصصان طی سه مرحله) در محدوده استفاده شد. همچنین، برای تعیین وزن و اولویت‌‌بندی معیارها از روش تحلیل سلسله مراتبی شبکه‌‌ای (ANP)؛ استفاده گردید. سپس با ترکیب لایه‌‌های مخاطرات موجود و اوزان حاصل از فازی‌‌سازی در نرم‌‌افزار (Arc GIS)، میزان آسیب‌‌پذیری مخاطرات طبیعی مقاصد گردشگری محدودۀ مورد مطالعه به تفکیک هر مخاطره در قالب نقشۀ پهنه‌‌بندی ارائه شد.

یافته‌ها: در این پژوهش، در راستای بررسی وضعیت آسیب‌‌پذیری سه مخاطرۀ سیل، زلزله و حرکات دامنه‌‌ای به واسطۀ وزن‌‌دهی و فازی‌‌سازی معیارها، نقشۀ آسیب‌‌پذیری هر مخاطره تولید و میزان آسیب‌‌پذیری مقاصد گردشگری در برابر آن مخاطرات مشخص شد.

نتیجه‌گیری: نتایج نشان دهندۀ آن است که در روند تحلیل آسیب‌‌پذیری منطقه، مخاطرۀ سیل، زلزله و حرکات دامنه‌‌ای به ترتیب از بیشترین و کمترین میزان اهمیت برخورداند. همچنین نتایج پهنه‌‌بندی نشان ‌‌می‌‌دهد که بیشترین آسیب‌‌پذیری سیل در محدودۀ مقصد گردشگری شهر چورزق، لار، سرخ‌‌آباد، محور شیرین‌‌سو- سیاه‌‌ورود و کردآباد است. از منظر مخاطرۀ زلزله، مقاصد گردشگری شهر آببر با میزان آسیب‌‌پذیری خیلی زیاد و پس از آن شهر چورزق، روستای ده بهار و ناحیۀ آبشار هشترخان در روستای لار دارای آسیب‌‌پذیری زیاد هستند و از منظر مخاطرۀ حرکات دامنه‌‌ای، به ترتیب؛ محور شیرین‌‌سو- سیاه‌‌ورود، ناحیۀ ولیدر و ناحیۀ آبشار هشترخان در روستای لار و منطقۀ سرخ‌‌آباد در معرض بیشترین آسیب‌‌پذیری هستند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
مخاطرات طبیعی
مقاصد گردشگرپذیر
ماتریس ریسک
شهرستان طارم

عنوان مقاله English

Evaluating the Vulnerability of Tourist Destinations in Tarom township to Natural Hazards

نویسندگان English

Maryam Mohammadlo
Jamshid Einali
Kohzad Raispour
MohammadJavad Abbasi
Ghamar Abbasi
چکیده English

Objective: As a result of its distinct natural and geographical conditions, Tarom township is highly vulnerable to a range of natural hazards, including floods, earthquakes, and Mass movements. Given the region's increasing popularity as a tourist destination, the implementation of effective risk management strategies is imperative. As a foundational step toward this goal, it is essential to identify, prioritize, and spatially delineate the natural hazards present in the area.

Methods: This study commenced with the development of a comprehensive checklist and risk matrix aimed at identifying the predominant hazards and evaluating the significance of their consequences. To obtain a reliable group consensus, a Delphi survey was conducted involving 10 experts across three iterative rounds. Furthermore, the Analytic Network Process (ANP) was employed to assign weights and prioritize the evaluation criteria. Subsequently, by integrating the hazard layers with the derived fuzzy weights using ArcGIS software, the vulnerability of natural hazards affecting tourist destinations within the study area was spatially delineated and presented through detailed zoning maps for each hazard category.

Results: In this study, to assess the vulnerability status of three hazards (floods, earthquakes, and Mass movements) the criteria were weighted and fuzzified, resulting in the production of vulnerability maps for each hazard. Consequently, the vulnerability levels of tourist destinations against these hazards were determined.

Conclusions: The results indicate that among the natural hazards analyzed in the region, floods hold the highest level of importance, followed by earthquakes and mass movements. Furthermore, the spatial vulnerability mapping reveals that the highest flood vulnerability is concentrated in the tourist destinations of Chavarzagh, Lar, Sorkhabad, the ShirinSu–Siahvarud corridor, and Kordabad. In terms of earthquake risk, the city of Abbar shows a very high level of vulnerability, followed by Chavazagh, the village of Deh-Bahar, and the Heshtarkhan waterfall area in Lar. Regarding Mass movements hazards, the areas most exposed to vulnerability include the ShirinSu–Siahvarud corridor, the region of Valider, the Heshtarkhan waterfall area in Lar, and Sorkhabad.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Natural hazards
tourist destinations
Risk Matrix
Tarom township
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Sengul, H., Santella, N., Steinberg, L. J., & Cruz, A. M. (2012). Analysis of hazardous material releases due to natural hazards in the United States. Disasters, 36(4), 723-743.
Sarani, M., González, P. A., and Delgado, R. C. (2016). Emergency and Disaster Reports. 3(4): 3-48.
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