تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

مدلسازی و پیش‌بینی خطر تخریب جنگل روی میزان انتشار گاز دی‌اکسید کربن با مدل REDD (مطالعه‌ موردی: شهرستا ن‌های چالوس و نوشهر(

نویسندگان
دانشگاه گلستان
چکیده
کاهش انتشارات ناشی از جنگل­زدایی و تخریب جنگل (REDDراهکاری برای تعدیل تغییرات اقلیمی است که به منظور کاهش شدت جنگل­زدایی و انتشار گازهای گلخانه­ای در کشورهای در حال توسعه به کار گرفته می­شود. در چند دهه اخیر، تغییرات شدید کاربری اراضی سبب کاهش میزان چشمگیری از جنگلهای هیرکانی واقع در استان مازندران شده است. به این منظور هدف این مطالعه، بررسی تغییرات کاربری اراضی و پیش­بینی آن برای سال 1430 با استفاده از زنجیره مارکوف و پروژه REDD برای کاهش انتشار گاز دی­اکسیدکربن برای شهرستان­های نوشهر و­ چالوس می­باشد. با استفاده از تصاویر سنجنده­های TM وETM+ ماهواره­ای لندست نقشه کاربری اراضی در سه دوره زمانی مربوط به سال­های 1368، 1379 و 1400 تهیه شده است. برای طبقه­بندی تصاویر از طبقه­بندی نظارت شده، روش حداکثر احتمال استفاده گردید. از ماتریس خطا، ضریب کاپا در این ارزیابی برای سال 1368 برابر با 83/0، سال 1379 برابر با 81/0 و برای سال 1400 برابر با 92/0 بدست آمد. نتایج نشان می­دهد که پوشش جنگل در سال 1430 کاهش پیدا می­کنند. در مقابل مساحت اراضی مرتع، شهر، زمین­بایر، کشاورزی و تالاب روند افزایشی خواهند داشت. براساس اهداف پروژه REDD، میزان انتشار دی­اکسیدکربن تا سال 1430 محاسبه گردید. در صورت عدم اجرای پروژه REDD، در منطقه مساحت زیادی از پوشش جنگل تخریب و دی­اکسیدکربن بیشتری انتشار می­یابد. میزان دی­اکسیدکربن در سال 1400 در منطقه اجرای پروژه، 49681 تن می­باشد و تا سال 1430 به میزان 806732 تن خواهد رسید و با اجرای پروژه REDD در منطقه می­توان این میزان گاز را به معادل 402321 تن رساند، و از انتشار 404411 تن دی­اکسیدکربن به جو فوقانی زمین جلوگیری نمود. بررسی تغییرات با استفاده از تصاویر ماهواره­ای می­تواند به مدیران و برنامه­ریزان کمک کند، تا تصمیمات آگاهانه­تری بگیرند.


کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

Modeling and forecasting the risk of forest degradation on the emitting amount of carbon dioxide gas using the REDD model (Case study: Cities of Chalus and Nowshahr)

نویسندگان English

saleh arekhi
Habib Allah Kour
Somia Emadaddian
golestan university
چکیده English

Reducing the emissions caused by deforestation and forest degradation REDD is a strategy to moderate climate change, which is used to reduce the intensity of deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries. In the last few decades, drastic changes in land use have caused a significant decrease in Hyrkan forests located in Mazandaran province. For this purpose, the aim of this study is to investigate the changes in land use and its prediction for the year 2050 using the Markov chain and the REDD project to reduce carbon dioxide emissions for the cities of Nowshahr and Chalus. Using the images of TM and ETM+ sensors of Landsat satellite, a land use map has been prepared in three time periods related to the years 1989, 2000 and 2021. Maximum likelihood method was used to classify images from supervised classification. From the error matrix, the Kappa coefficient in this evaluation was equal to 0.83 for 1989, 0.81 for 2000, and 0.92 for 2021. The results show that the forest cover decreases in 2050. In contrast, the area of ​​range land, city, barren land, agriculture and wetland will increase. Based on the goals of the REDD project, the amount of carbon dioxide emissions was calculated until 2050. If the REDD project is not implemented, a large area of ​​forest cover will be destroyed and a lot of carbon dioxide is released. The amount of carbon dioxide in the project area in 2021 is 49,681 tons and will reach 806,732 tons by 2051, and with the implementation of the REDD project in the region, this amount of gas can be increased to the equivalent of 402,321 tons. 404411 tons of carbon dioxide was prevented from entering the upper atmosphere of the earth. Examining changes using satellite images can help managers and planners to make more informed decisions.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Markov chain
Remote Sensing
kappa coefficient
carbon dioxide gas
REDD project
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