تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

واکاوی الگوهای همدیدی بر بارش های سنگین و سیلابی در حوضه کابل.

نویسندگان
عبدالعزیز قاضی زاده
کمال امیدوار
غلامعلی مظفری
احمد مزیدی
دانشگاه یزد
10.66224/jsaeh.12.3.3
چکیده
چکیده

هدف: حوضه کابل به دلیل وقوع سیلاب‌های شدید و بارش‌های سنگین، یکی از مناطق آسیب‌پذیر افغانستان به شمار می‌رود. این پژوهش با هدف شناسایی بارش‌های سنگین (بیش از ۲۰ میلی‌متر) و سازوکارهای همدیدی مرتبط با آن‌ها، به واکاوی بارش‌های سنگین و سیلابی در این حوضه پرداخته است.

روش پژوهش: برای این کار، داده‌های روزانه بارش ۱۸ ایستگاه هیدرولوژیک در محدوده حوضه کابل طی دوره آماری ۲۰۰۸ تا ۲۰۲۲ با رویکرد محیطی-گردشی تحلیل شد. تحلیل خوشه‌ای با استفاده از روش ادغام وارد انجام گرفت و نقشه‌های همدیدی با استفاده از نرم‌افزار گرادس استخراج گردید.

یافته‌ها: نتایج نشان می‌دهد که بارش‌های سنگین و سیلابی در حوضه کابل، تحت تأثیر ترکیبی از عوامل جوی و همدیدی قرار گرفته و سه الگوی همدیدی اصلی عامل بارش‌های سنگین در حوضه کابل می باشد. در الگوی اول (۲۳ مارس ۲۰۰۹)، ناوه‌ای در شرق مدیترانه باعث بارش ۳۱ میلی‌متری در ایستگاه قلعه ملک شد. در الگوی دوم (۱۷ مارس ۲۰۱۴)، ناوه عمیق همراه با نفوذ هوای سرد سیبری منجر به بارش ۵۹ میلی‌متری در ایستگاه باغ عمومی و سرازیر شدن سیلاب در استان‌های پروان، کاپیسا و کابل گردید. در الگوی سوم (۵ فوریه ۲۰۱۷)، ترکیب ناوه، هوای سرد و واچرخند هند ریزش بارش ۶۰ میلی‌متری را در ایستگاه قلعه ملک به دنبال داشت.

نتیجه‌گیری: با بررسی رفتار گردش‌های جوی و سامانه‌های مؤثر، می‌توان وقوع این بارش‌ها را چند روز پیش از ظهور الگوهای مربوطه پیش‌بینی کرد و اقدامات لازم را برای کاهش اثرات زیان‌بار آن‌ها به کار گرفت. نتایج این مطالعه در مدیریت بهینه منابع آبی، آمادگی در برابر خسارات، کاهش آسیب‌ها، و صدور هشدار به‌موقع به مسئولان و ساکنان منطقه اهمیت زیادی خواهد داشت.
کلیدواژه‌ها
واژگان کلیدی:  الگوی همدیدی
بارش سنگین و سیلابی
تحلیل خوشه ای
حوضه کابل

عنوان مقاله English

Analysis of Synoptic Patterns in Heavy and Flooding Rainfalls in the Kabul Basin

نویسندگان English

Abdul aziz Qazizada
Kamal Omidvar
ghulmali muzafari
Ahmmad Mazedi
Yazd University
چکیده English

Abstract

Objective:The Kabul Basin is one of the most vulnerable regions in Afghanistan due to the frequency of heavy rainfalls and devastating floods. This study aims to identify heavy rainfall events (above 20 mm) and analyze their synoptic mechanisms, focusing on their causes and patterns.

Methods:The study uses a descriptive-analytical approach based on daily rainfall data from 18 hydrometeorological stations in the Kabul Basin over the statistical period of 2008 to 2022. Heavy and flooding rainfall events were identified using the environmental-circulation method. Cluster analysis was conducted using Ward’s hierarchical clustering technique, and GrADS software was employed to extract and interpret synoptic maps.

Results:The analysis revealed three main synoptic circulation patterns responsible for heavy rainfalls in the basin. Three representative days were selected for detailed analysis: March 23, 2009 (31 mm rainfall at Qala-e-Malak), March 17, 2014 (59 mm at Bagh-e-Umumi), and February 5, 2017 (60 mm at Qala-e-Malak). These events were associated with Mediterranean troughs, cold Siberian air intrusions, and Indian anticyclone influence, which collectively intensified rainfall. The findings suggest that these systems can be monitored in advance for early warning.

Conclusions:Heavy and flooding rainfalls in the Kabul Basin are strongly influenced by specific synoptic systems and atmospheric interactions. Recognizing these patterns enables early detection of risk and can improve the efficiency of disaster preparedness, water resource management, and regional warning systems. This study provides valuable insight for reducing vulnerabilities and mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events in the region.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Keywords: Cluster analysis
Heavy and flooding rainfall
Kabul Basin
Synoptic pattern
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