تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

تحلیل و ارزیابی انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای در ایران

نویسنده
وحید صفریان
دانشگاه کردستان
10.66224/jsaeh.12.3.7
چکیده
هدف: هدف این پژوهش بررسی تغییرات گازهای گلخانه‌ای در ایران و شناخت گازهای اثرگذارتر می‎باشد. هم‎چنین یافته‌های تحقیق به شناخت بهتر وضعیت آلودگی و تدوین راهکارهای کاهش آن کمک خواهد کرد. این یافته‌ها می‌تواند مبنای برنامه‌ریزی برای کاهش اثرات تغییر اقلیم در کشور قرار گیرد. در تحقیق حاضر از داده‌های سنجش از دور استفاده شد.

روش پژوهش: در پژوهش حاضر به بررسی تغییرات زمانی و فضایی گازهای گلخانه‌ای شامل مونوکسیدکربن، دی‌اکسید نیتروژن، اُزن، بخار آب و متان در ایران طی سال‌های ۲۰۱۹ تا ۲۰۲۴ اقدام شد. داده‌های ماهواره‌ای Sentinel-5P با استفاده از سامانه تحت وب GEE استخراج شدند و پس از فیلتر کردن و حذف داده‌های دارای کیفیت پایین، با استفاده از روش Z-Score برای بهبود مقایسه و تحلیل همبستگی استانداردسازی شدند. برای کاهش ابعاد داده‌ها و شناسایی مؤلفه‌های مؤثر بر تغییرات گازها، تحلیل مؤلفه‌های اصلی (PCA) انجام شد و روندهای زمانی و مکانی گازها با استفاده از تحلیل آمار بررسی گردید.

یافته‌ها: نتایج نشان داد که متان دارای روند افزایشی پایدار از اواخر ۲۰۲۱ تا پایان ۲۰۲۴ بوده و با ضریب تعیین 0.87 = بیش‎ترین تأثیر را بر واریانس کل داده‌ها دارد که احتمالاً ناشی از فعالیت‌های انسانی و تغییرات اقلیمی منطقه می‎باشد. CO،NO₂ و O₃ بیش‎تر تحت تأثیر نوسانات فصلی و عوامل غیرخطی قرار داشته و الگوهای افزایشی یا کاهشی طولانی‌مدت مشخصی از آن‌ها مشاهده نشد. بخار آب نیز با تغییرات دما، منابع آب و الگوهای جوی رابطه مستقیم دارد و کم‎ترین غلظت آن در ماه‌های سرد ثبت شد، در حالی که در ماه‌های گرم افزایش نشان می‌دهد. تحلیل PCA نشان داد که دو مؤلفه اصلی بیش از ۷۰ درصد واریانس کل داده‌ها را توضیح می‌دهند و گازهای CH₄،O₃ وNO₂ بیش‎ترین سهم را در تغییرات کل دارند.

نتیجه‌گیری: نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که تغییرات گازهای گلخانه‌ای در ایران هم‎زمان تحت تأثیر عوامل طبیعی و فعالیت‌های انسانی است. ترکیب داده‌های ماهواره‌ای، تحلیل آماری و PCA امکان ارزیابی دقیق روندهای زمانی و فضایی گازهای گلخانه‌ای را فراهم کرده و اطلاعات ارزشمندی برای برنامه‌ریزی کاهش آلاینده‌ها، و تدوین راهبردهای مقابله با تغییر اقلیم ارائه می‌دهد.




کلیدواژه‌ها
گازهای گلخانه‌ای
PCA
سنجش از دور
Sentinel-5P
ایران

عنوان مقاله English

Analysis and Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Iran

نویسنده English

Vahid Safarian
University of Kurdistan
چکیده English

Objective: This study aims to analyze greenhouse gas variations across Iran and to identify the gases that exert the greatest influence on their overall dynamics. The findings enhance understanding of atmospheric pollution patterns and support the development of effective mitigation strategies. These results provide a scientific basis for climate-change mitigation planning in Iran. The study relies on satellite-based remote sensing datasets.

Methods: This study analyzes the temporal and spatial variations of major greenhouse gases including carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, water vapor, and methane across Iran from 2019 to 2024. Sentinel-5P satellite data were extracted via the Google Earth Engine platform, and after filtering and removing low-quality observations, the data were standardized using the Z-Score method to enhance comparability and correlation analysis. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied to reduce data dimensionality and identify dominant variation patterns. Temporal and spatial trends were then quantified using complementary statistical techniques.

Results:

Methane exhibited a consistent increasing trend from late 2021 through 2024 and accounted for the largest share of total variance (R² = 0.87), likely reflecting intensified anthropogenic activities and regional climatic shifts. CO, NO₂, and O₃ were mainly affected by seasonal fluctuations and nonlinear factors, and no clear long-term increasing or decreasing trends were observed. Water vapor showed a direct relationship with temperature variations, water sources, and atmospheric patterns, with its lowest concentrations recorded during the cold months and increases observed in the warm months. PCA analysis indicated that the first two principal components explained more than 70% of the total data variance, with CH₄, O₃, and NO₂ contributing the most to the overall variations.

Conclusions: The study results indicated that greenhouse gas variations in Iran are simultaneously influenced by natural factors and human activities. The combination of satellite data, statistical analysis, and PCA enabled a precise assessment of the temporal and spatial trends of greenhouse gases, providing valuable information for planning pollutant reduction and developing strategies to combat climate change.






کلیدواژه‌ها English

greenhouse gases
PCA
Remote Sensing
Sentinel-5P Iran
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