تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

واکاوی الگوهای همدیدی و مدل سازی مسیرهای انتقال و انتشار گردوغبار در استان کرمان

نویسندگان
سعیده زابلی 1
سعید جهانبخش اصل 1
علی محمد خورشید دوست 1
محمود خسروی 2
1 دانشگاه تبریز
2 زاهدان-دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان-
10.66224/jsaeh.12.4.5
چکیده
توفان‌های گردوغبار یکی از بارزترین مخاطرات طبیعی مناطق خشک و نیمه خشک جهان است که هر ساله خسارات جبران ناپذیری را به بخش‌های مختلف وارد می‌کند. به دلیل افزایش توفان‌های گردوغبار در استان کرمان و مناطق کویری و بیابانی کشور، انجام پژوهشی به منظور شناسایی الگوهای همدیدی منجر به گردوغبار و تعیین خاستگاه و انتقال و انتشار این پدیده ضروری است. لذا در این پژوهش شرایط و منشاء شکل‌گیری توفان‌های گردوغبار در دوره آماری 2000 تا 2023 با استفاده از روش‌های همدیدی و سنجش از دوری مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. بدین منظور از مدل HYSPLIT برای ردیابی مسیر باد و از روش‌های تحلیل عاملی و خوشه‌ای برای شناسایی الگوهای همدیدی منجر به گردوغبار استفاده شد و در نهایت خاستگاه عمده‌ گردوغبار‌های استان کرمان تعیین شد. نتایج نشان داد که 63 درصد توفان‌های این استان منشاء داخلی و 37 درصد منشاء خارج از کشور دارند و سه الگوی جوی در گردوغبارهای استان کرمان موثرند که شامل الگوی هم شارش دو سامانه کم‌فشار و پرفشار، الگوی کم ارتفاع بریده و پرفشار سیبری و الگوی گرادیان فشار و هسته سرعت باد هستند. مدل‌سازی مسیرهای انتقال و انتشار گردوغبار نیز نشان داد که بیشترین فراوانی گردوغبار خارجی با 60 درصد از شبه جزیره عربستان به منطقه منتقل می‌شود و بیشترین میزان انتشار گردوغبار از استان کرمان نیز در مسیر جنوبی با 55 درصد است که سواحل مکران و دریای عمان را تحت تأثیر قرار می‌دهد. بررسی خاستگاه گردوغبارها نیز نشان داد که مناطق بیابانی کشورهای عربستان سعودی، عراق، سوریه و اردن و بیابان‌های شمال آفریقا و همچنین منابع داخلی شامل تالاب خشکیده جازموریان، کویر لوت، منطقه هامون و صحرای طبس بیشترین سهم را در گردوغبارهای استان کرمان دارند.


کلیدواژه‌ها
تحلیل خوشه‌ای
تحلیل عاملی
کرمان
گردوغبار
واکاوی همدیدی

عنوان مقاله English

Analysis of Synoptic Patterns and Modeling of Dust Transport and Dispersion Pathways in Kerman Province

نویسندگان English

Saeedeh zaboli 1
Saeed Jahanbakhsh Asl 1
Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust 1
Mahmood Khosravi 2
چکیده English

Dust storms rank among the most significant natural hazards in the world’s arid and semi-arid regions, inflicting irreparable damage across multiple sectors each year. Given the rising frequency of dust storms in Kerman Province and other desert and arid areas of Iran, it is imperative to undertake a study aimed at identifying the synoptic patterns that precipitate dust events and at determining their source regions as well as their transport and dispersion pathways. In this research, the conditions and origins of dust storm formation over the 2000–2023 period were examined using synoptic and remote-sensing methods. The HYSPLIT model was applied to track airflow trajectories, and factor analysis together with cluster analysis were used to identify the synoptic patterns responsible for dust generation. Finally, the principal source regions of dust were delineated.

The results revealed that 63% of the province’s dust storms originate from domestic sources, whereas 37% originate from other areas. Three main atmospheric patterns were identified as drivers of dust activity in Kerman Province:

1. The co-advection of simultaneous low-pressure and high-pressure systems;

2. A lower-tropospheric cutoff low pressure in conjunction with the Siberian high;

3. A pressure-gradient regime featuring a core of elevated wind speeds.

Modeling of transport and dispersion pathways indicated that 60% of externally sourced dust is advected from the Arabian Peninsula, while 55% of dust emitted disperses southward, impacting the Makran coast and the Sea of Oman. Analysis of source regions further showed that the desert areas of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria, and Jordan, as well as those of North Africa, together with internal sources such as the dried Jazmourian wetland, the Lut Desert, the Hamun region, and the Tabas Desert, contribute most substantially to the dust events observed in Kerman Province.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

cluster analysis
Factor analysis
Kerman
Dust
Synoptic Analysis
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