تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

واکاوی اثرات ریسک و مخاطرات اکوسیستم روستایی در توسعه انواع گردشگری روستایی

نویسندگان
1 دانشکده علوم زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران
2 گروه مدیریت و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشکدگان کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران
3 گروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، دانشکده علوم زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران
چکیده
هدف: این پژوهش با هدف واکاوی اثرات ریسک و مخاطرات اکوسیستم روستایی در توسعه انواع گردشگری روستایی در منطقه گردشگری روستایی شهرستان محمودآباد، واقع در استان مازندران انجام شد تا به بررسی توسعه انواع گردشگری روستایی به عنوان راهبرد تاب‌آور نمـودن و سازگاری روستاییان و راهکاری پیشگیرانه در روستاها در برابر مخاطرات اقتصادی و زیست‌محیطی و اجتماعی و نیز کاهش آسیب‌پذیری در اکوسیستم روستایی بپردازد.

روش پژوهش: از نظر هدف، کاربردی و از نظر شیوه­ی گردآوری اطلاعات، توصیفی (غیرآزمایشی) و از نوع همبستگی (تحلیل ماتریس واریانس) با هدف نمایش رابطه میان متغیرها می‌باشد. جامعه مورد مطالعه شامل تمامی 88 روستا موجود در شهرستان محمودآباد بود. ابزار جمع‌آوری داده‌ها یک عدد پرسشنامه محقق ساخته و افراد مورد پرسش دهیاران بودند. برای تحلیل داده‌ها از روش مدل‌سازی معادلات ساختاری مبتنی بر روش حداقل مربعات جزئی استفاده شد.

یافته‌ها: نتایج پژوهش در زمینه اولویت‌بندی بعدها و گویه‌‌های مخاطرات و ریسک برای ارزیابی اکوسیستم روستایی نشان می‌دهد که ریسکهای اقتصادی، زیست‌محیطی و اجتماعی به ترتیب در اولویت‌های یک تا سه جای گرفتند. بر اساس مدل ساختاری، میان ریسک‌های تأثیرگذار بر توسعه انواع گردشگری، بر اساس ضریب مسیر (pc) تنها تأثیر مستقیم مخاطرات زیست‌محیطی (با ضریب مسیر 0/338و T-value 2/467) معنی‌دار شده است؛ ریسک اقتصادی و اجتماعی به طور غیرمستقیم از طریق متغیر میانجی ریسک زیست‌محیطی بر توسعه انواع گردشگری اثر معنی‌داری داشته است. حدود 30 درصد از تغییرات توسعه انواع گردشگری توسط مدل پیشنهادی با اثر مستقیم مخاطرات زیست‌محیطی و اثر غیرمستقیم مخاطرات اقتصادی و مخاطرات اجتماعی تبیین می‌شود.

نتیجه‌گیری: به‌عنوان یک نتیجه‌گیری کلی، انواع گردشگری روستایی در منطقه باید به‌عنوان کارآفرینی فرصت‌محور و ضرورت‌محور موردتوجه جدی قرار گیرد. در این راستا تشکیل نهادهای گردشگری محلی با تمرکز بر جوانان و زنان روستایی، یک راهکار مؤثر برای کاهش مخاطرات اجتماعی و اقتصادی روستا محسوب می‌شود. در نهایت، شناخت و ترویج ارزش‌های اکولوژیکی از طریق نهاد توانمندساز آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، زیربنای توسعه پایدار معیشت روستایی است و باید با تأکید بر توسعه گردشگری سبز و اگروتوریسم موردتوجه جدی قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

Analyzing the effects of risks and hazards of rural ecosystems on the development of various types of rural tourism

نویسندگان English

Milad Heydari 1
Ali Akbar Barati 2
Taher Azizi Khalkheili 3
1 Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Faculty of Crop Sciences, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari. Iran
2 Faculty of Economics and Agricultural Development, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
3 Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Faculty of Crop Sciences, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari. Iran
چکیده English

Objective: A major part of rural risk, such as production risks, economic risks, and severe climate changes, is related to agricultural risks, which have significant negative impacts on the agricultural sector. This study aimed to investigate the effects of risks and hazards of the rural ecosystem on the development of various types of rural tourism in the rural tourism area of ​​Mahmoudabad County, located in Mazandaran Province, in order to examine the development of various types of rural tourism as a strategy for resilience and adaptation of villagers, as well as a preventive strategy in villages against economic, environmental, and social shocks, as well as reducing vulnerability and diversifying the rural economy.

Methods: The research method is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive (non-experimental) and correlational (variance matrix analysis) in terms of data collection method with the aim of showing the relationship between variables. The study population included all 88 villages in Mahmudabad city. The data collection tool was a researcher-made questionnaire and the respondents were the villagers. The structural equation modeling (SEM) method based on Smart-PLS was used to analyze the data.

Results:

The results of the research on prioritizing dimensions and hazard and risk items for rural ecosystem assessment show that economic, environmental, and social risks were ranked in priorities one to three, respectively. Based on the path coefficient (pc), only the direct effect of environmental pressure (with a path coefficient of 0.338 and a T-value of 2.467) was significant. About 30 percent of the changes in the development of tourism types are explained by the proposed model with the direct effect of environmental hazards and the indirect effect of economic hazards and social hazards.



Conclusions: As a general conclusion, the types of rural tourism in the region should be given serious attention as opportunity driven entrepreneurship and necessity driven entrepreneurship. In this regard, recognizing ecological values ​​through education and long-term propaganda for the sustainable development of rural livelihoods with emphasis on the development of green tourism, ecotourism, and agrotourism is recommended

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Rural resilience
Green tourism
Social risks
Economic risks
Environmental risks
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