تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی

شناسایی مؤلفه‌های محیطی تأثیرگذار در بحران‌های بیولوژیکی (مطالعه موردی: کلان‌شهر تبریز)

نویسندگان
غزاله رفیعی
آیدا ملکی
یاسر شهبازی
اصغر مولائی
دانشکده معماری و شهرسازی، دانشگاه هنر اسلامی تبریز، تبریز، ایران.
10.61186/jsaeh.11.3.6
چکیده
بحران‌های طبیعی بیولوژیکی خطری همیشگی برای جوامع بشری محسوب می‌شوند؛ بنابراین آمادگی کنترل و پیشگیری از این‌گونه بلایا امری مهم تلقی می‌شود. در مقابله با چنین بحران‌های شهری پرداختن به مقوله مداخلات غیر دارویی در برابر بیماری‌های واگیردار می‌تواند راهگشا باشد از این‌رو هدف پژوهش حاضر یافتن شاخص‌های اصلی مؤثر در همه‌گیری و تبیین مؤلفه‌های محیطی حاصل از برهمکنش و همبستگی شاخص‌های مرتبط قابل‌سنجش در سطح محلات بر اساس مطالعات محیطی پیشین، می‌باشد. بدین منظور تمامی شاخص‌های محیطی قابل‌دسترس در سطح 118 محله کلان‌شهر تبریز شناسایی شدند. سپس با استفاده از اطلاعات ثانویه، شاخص‌های محیطی محلات با استفاده از تحلیل عاملی اکتشافی به دست آمد. سپس با استفاده از روش اکتشافی- تجربی و مبتنی بر روش‌های کمی، پس از تبیین مؤلفه‌های محیطی مؤثر در همه‌گیری، محلات کلان‌شهر تبریز دسته‌بندی شد. درنهایت 42 شاخص و 8 مؤلفه تجمع، تنوع و طراحی، عوامل اجتماعی، تراکم، عوامل اقتصادی، زیرساخت بهداشتی، آلودگی محیطی و فضاهای سبز و باز به‌عنوان مؤلفه‌های مؤثر بر گسترش بیماری‌های همه‌گیر در سطح محلات شناسایی شدند. هر یک از این عوامل دارای چندین شاخص است که قابلیت سنجش مولفه مذکور را فراهم می‌نماید. بر اساس نتایج میزان اثرات عوامل محیطی بر انتقال کووید-19 از نظر مکانی متمایز می‌شوند. این مؤلفه‌ها درمجموع بیش از 82 درصد تغییرات عوامل محیطی مؤثر را نشان می‌دهند. برنامه‌ریزان، سازندگان و پژوهشگران می‌توانند بر اساس میزان این مولفه ها محلات را از نظر گسترش همه گیری دسته‌بندی نمایند و استراتژی‌های متناسب را در تصمیم‌گیری‌های آتی برای توسعه شهری پایدار مدنظر قرار دهند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
شهر سالم
تحلیل عاملی اکتشافی
کووید 19
پاندمی
همه‌گیری

عنوان مقاله English

Identifying environmental factors influencing biological crises Research sample: Tabriz metropolis

نویسندگان English

Ghazale Rafiee
Aida Maleki
Yaser Shahbazi
Asghar Molaei
Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tabriz University of Islamic Arts, Tabriz, Iran.
چکیده English

Natural biological crises are a constant threat to human societies; Therefore, it is considered important to be prepared to control and prevent such disasters. In dealing with such urban crises, addressing the category of non-pharmacological interventions against infectious diseases can be a way forward. Therefore, the aim of the current research is to find the main effective indicators in the epidemic and to explain the environmental components resulting from the interaction and correlation of the relevant measurable indicators at the locality level based on previous environmental studies.

In this research, in order to obtain a community of opinion about effective indicators in epidemiological crises, a systematic search was first conducted using the keyword of pandemic resilience. For this purpose, several widely used databases such as Web of Science, Scopus and Elsevier were searched between 2013 and 2023. After checking the quality of the conducted researches, 42 indicators were selected. Further, in order to find out the underlying variables and identify the basic factors or criteria in order to explain the correlation pattern between the observed variables, the exploratory factor analysis method was used and SPSS version 26 software was used to analyze the data. Data from 118 Tabriz neighborhoods were used for exploratory factor analysis. After collecting the data, the process of change, standardization has been done to prepare the data and convert the raw data into percentage, growth rate, average and ratio. Then, the status of urban resilience components against epidemic diseases was calculated and normalized separately based on factor load for each neighborhood. Finally, the results were illustrated using Arc GIS software.

The findings of the research indicate that 42 indicators affecting the spread of epidemic diseases at the level of localities can be re-categorized into 8 components of accumulation, diversity and design, social factors, density, economic factors, health infrastructure, environmental pollution and green spaces. Also, based on the findings, it can be said that the condition of most of the components in the neighborhoods of Tabriz city is at an average level.

Based on the results, the effects of environmental factors on the transmission of Covid-19 are differentiated spatially. These components represent more than 82% of the changes in effective environmental factors.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Healthy city
Exploratory Factor Analysis
COVID-19
Pandemic
Epidemic
Andrianou XD, Pronk A, Galea KS, Stierum R, Loh M, Riccardo F, et al. 2020. EXposome based public health interventions for infectious diseases in urban settings. Environment International, 146:106246.
روابط عمومی سازمان مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی استان آذربایجان‌شرقی. 1396. گزارش عملکرد سازمان مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی استان آذربایجان شرقی در سال 1396: به همراه برنامه عملیاتی سال .1397. سازمان مدیریت و برنامه ریزی استان آذربایجان شرقی. تبریز.
Auger KA, Shah SS, Richardson T, Hartley D, Hall M, Warniment A, et al. 2020. Association between statewide school closure and COVID-19 incidence and mortality in the US. JAMA. 324(9): 859–870.
زبردست، اسفندیار. 1396. برنامه‌ریزی مسکن در سطح محلی، معاونت مسکن و ساختمان. وزارت راه و شهرسازی، تهران.
Bolashikov ZD, MelikovAK. 2009. Methods for air cleaning and protection of building occupants from airborne pathogens. Building and Environment, 44(7): 1378–1385.
Brown KA, Jones A, Daneman N, Chan AK, Schwartz KL, Garber GE, et al. 2020. Association between nursing home crowding and COVID-19 infection and mortality in Ontario, Canada. Preprint at medRXiv. 181(2):229-236.
Chan JFW, Yuan S, Kok KH, To KKW, Chu H, Yang J, et al. 2020.A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster. Lancet, 395 (10223): 514–523.
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European Commission. 2020. COVID-19: Guidelines on the progressive restoration of transport services and connectivity. Brussels, Belgium: European Commission.
Eykelbosh A. 2020. Physical barriers for COVID-19 infection prevention and control in commercial settings [blog]. Vancouver, BC: National Collaborating Center for Environmental Health. available at: https://ncceh.ca/content/blog/physical- barriers-covid-19-infection-prevention-and- control-commercial-settings. (Accessed 13 May 2020).
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Friedmann J, Wolff G. 1982. World city formation: An agenda for research and action. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research. 6(3): 309–344.
Gan N, Thomas N, Culver D. 2020. CNN. Over 1,700 frontline medics infected with coronavirus in China, presenting new crisis for the government. available at: https://editi on.cnn.com/2020/02/13/asia/coronavirus-health-care-workers-infected-intl-hnk/i ndex.html. (Accessed 24 February 2020).
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Henson R, Kyle R. 2006. Use of exploratory factor analysis in published research. Educational and Psychological Measurement. 66(3):393-416.
Howard, MC.2016. A Review of Exploratory Factor Analysis Decisions and Overview of Current Practices: What We Are Doing and How Can We Improve? International Journal of Human Computer Interaction. 32(1): 51–62.
Hui DS, Azhar EI, Madani TA, Ntoumi F, Kock R, Dar O, et al.2020. The continuing 2019-nCoV epidemic threat of novel coronaviruses to global health—the latest 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China, Int. J. Infect. Dis. 91: 264–266.
Kang DW, Kim M, Cho D, Lee S. 2010. The effects of urban development pressure on agricultural land price: Application of a miXed GWR model. Journal of Rural Development.33(4): 63–83.
Lee VJ, Ho M, Kai CW, Aguilera X, Heymann D, Wilder-Smith A. 2020. Epidemic preparedness in urban settings: new challenges and opportunities. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 20(5): 527–529.
Mathers, B. M., Degenhardt, L., Phillips, B., Wiessing, L., Hickman, M., Strathdee, S. A.,et al. 2008. Global epidemiology of injecting drug use and HIV among people who inject drugs: a systematic review. Lancet, 372, 1733–1745.
Morello E, RattiC. 2009. A digital image of the city: 3D isovists in Lynch’s urban analysis. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design. 36(5): 837–853.
Moudon AV, Lee C. 2003. Walking and bicycling: An evaluation of environmental audit instruments. American Journal of Health Promotion. 18(1): 21–37.
Neal T. COVID-19 and the built environment, Colin, Biggers and Paisley Lawyers. [(Accessed on 30 April 2020)]; Available online: https://www.cbp.com.au/insigh ts/insights/2020/march/covid-19-and-the-built-environment.
Nguyen QC, Huang Y, Kumar A, Duan H, Keralis JM, Dwivedi P, et al. 2020. Using 164 million Google Street View images to derive built environment predictors of COVID-19 cases. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 17: 6359.
Perdue W C, Stone LA, Gostin LO. 2003. The built environment and its relationship to the public’s health: The legal framework. American Journal of Public Health, 93(9): 1390–1394.
Raj VAA, Velraj R, Haghighat F. 2020. The contribution of dry indoor built environment on the spread of Coronavirus: Data from various Indian states.Sustainable Cities and Society. 62:102371.
Rothan HA, Byrareddy SN. 2020. The epidemiology and pathogenesis of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak. Journal of Autoimmunity. 109: 102433.
Saadat S, Rawtani D, Hussain C. 2020. Environmental perspective of COVID-19.The Science of the Total Environment. 728: 138870.
Saarloos D, Kim J E, Timmermans H. 2009. The built environment and health: Introducing individual space-time behavior. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 6(6):1724–1743.
steiger J H. 2017. Exploratory Factor Analysis with R. accessible from:http://www.statpower.net/Content/312/R%20Stuff/Exploratory%20Factor%20Analysis%20with%20R.pdf, 1-10
Tabachnick B, Fidell L. 2012.Using multivariate statistics, (6th Edition) Pearson Education, Inc.
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The Harvard Gazette. Healthy buildings expert outlines recommendations for school reopening (Accessed July 20, b 2020) 0/06/harvard-expert-outlines-recommendations-for-school-reopenings/.
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Wild CP. 2005. Complementing the genome with an “exposome”: The outstanding challenge of environmental exposure measurement in molecular epidemiology.Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers & Prevention, 14(8): 1847–1850.
Yashima K, Sasaki A. 2014. Epidemic process over the commute network in a metropolitan area. PloS One. 9(6):98518.
Yip TL, Huang Y, Liang C. 2021. Built environment and the metropolitan pandemic: Analysis of the COVID-19 spread in Hong Kong, Building and Environment. 188:107471.
روابط عمومی سازمان مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی استان آذربایجان‌شرقی. 1396. گزارش عملکرد سازمان مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی استان آذربایجان شرقی در سال 1396: به همراه برنامه عملیاتی سال .1397. سازمان مدیریت و برنامه ریزی استان آذربایجان شرقی. تبریز.
زبردست، اسفندیار. 1396. برنامه‌ریزی مسکن در سطح محلی، معاونت مسکن و ساختمان. وزارت راه و شهرسازی، تهران.
Andrianou XD, Pronk A, Galea KS, Stierum R, Loh M, Riccardo F, et al. 2020. EXposome based public health interventions for infectious diseases in urban settings. Environment International, 146:106246.
Auger KA, Shah SS, Richardson T, Hartley D, Hall M, Warniment A, et al. 2020. Association between statewide school closure and COVID-19 incidence and mortality in the US. JAMA. 324(9): 859–870.
Bolashikov ZD, MelikovAK. 2009. Methods for air cleaning and protection of building occupants from airborne pathogens. Building and Environment, 44(7): 1378–1385.
Brown KA, Jones A, Daneman N, Chan AK, Schwartz KL, Garber GE, et al. 2020. Association between nursing home crowding and COVID-19 infection and mortality in Ontario, Canada. Preprint at medRXiv. 181(2):229-236.
Chan JFW, Yuan S, Kok KH, To KKW, Chu H, Yang J, et al. 2020.A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster. Lancet, 395 (10223): 514–523.
covid19.who.int [Internet]. World Health Organization (WHO); c2024 [Cited 2024, 20 April]. Available from: https://data.who.int/dashboards/covid19/cases?n=c
Dietz L, Horve PF, Coil DA, Fretz M, Eisen JA, Van Den Wymelenberg K. 2020. 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic: Built environment considerations to reduce transmission. Msystems, 5(2).
European Commission. 2020. COVID-19: Guidelines on the progressive restoration of transport services and connectivity. Brussels, Belgium: European Commission.
Eykelbosh A. 2020. Physical barriers for COVID-19 infection prevention and control in commercial settings [blog]. Vancouver, BC: National Collaborating Center for Environmental Health. available at: https://ncceh.ca/content/blog/physical- barriers-covid-19-infection-prevention-and- control-commercial-settings. (Accessed 13 May 2020).
Forbes. Why COVID-19 raises the stakes for healthy buildings (Accessed July 20, 2020) https://www.forbes.com/sites/hbsworkingknowledge/2020/06/08/why-covid-19-raises-the-stakes-for-healthy-buildings/#1babce5324cd.
Friedmann J, Wolff G. 1982. World city formation: An agenda for research and action. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research. 6(3): 309–344.
Gan N, Thomas N, Culver D. 2020. CNN. Over 1,700 frontline medics infected with coronavirus in China, presenting new crisis for the government. available at: https://editi on.cnn.com/2020/02/13/asia/coronavirus-health-care-workers-infected-intl-hnk/i ndex.html. (Accessed 24 February 2020).
Hamidi S, Ewing R, Sabouri S. 2020a. Longitudinal analyses of the relationship between development density and the COVID-19 morbidity and mortality rates: Early evidence from 1,165 metropolitan counties in the U.S. Health & Place, 64: 102378.
Hamidi S, Sabouri S, Ewing R. 2020b. Does density aggravate the COVID-19 pandemic? Early findings and lessons for planners. Journal of the American Planning Association. 86:1–15.
Henson R, Kyle R. 2006. Use of exploratory factor analysis in published research. Educational and Psychological Measurement. 66(3):393-416.
Howard, MC.2016. A Review of Exploratory Factor Analysis Decisions and Overview of Current Practices: What We Are Doing and How Can We Improve? International Journal of Human Computer Interaction. 32(1): 51–62.
Hui DS, Azhar EI, Madani TA, Ntoumi F, Kock R, Dar O, et al.2020. The continuing 2019-nCoV epidemic threat of novel coronaviruses to global health—the latest 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China, Int. J. Infect. Dis. 91: 264–266.
Kang DW, Kim M, Cho D, Lee S. 2010. The effects of urban development pressure on agricultural land price: Application of a miXed GWR model. Journal of Rural Development.33(4): 63–83.
Lee VJ, Ho M, Kai CW, Aguilera X, Heymann D, Wilder-Smith A. 2020. Epidemic preparedness in urban settings: new challenges and opportunities. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 20(5): 527–529.
Mathers, B. M., Degenhardt, L., Phillips, B., Wiessing, L., Hickman, M., Strathdee, S. A.,et al. 2008. Global epidemiology of injecting drug use and HIV among people who inject drugs: a systematic review. Lancet, 372, 1733–1745.
Morello E, RattiC. 2009. A digital image of the city: 3D isovists in Lynch’s urban analysis. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design. 36(5): 837–853.
Moudon AV, Lee C. 2003. Walking and bicycling: An evaluation of environmental audit instruments. American Journal of Health Promotion. 18(1): 21–37.
Neal T. COVID-19 and the built environment, Colin, Biggers and Paisley Lawyers. [(Accessed on 30 April 2020)]; Available online: https://www.cbp.com.au/insigh ts/insights/2020/march/covid-19-and-the-built-environment.
Nguyen QC, Huang Y, Kumar A, Duan H, Keralis JM, Dwivedi P, et al. 2020. Using 164 million Google Street View images to derive built environment predictors of COVID-19 cases. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 17: 6359.
Perdue W C, Stone LA, Gostin LO. 2003. The built environment and its relationship to the public’s health: The legal framework. American Journal of Public Health, 93(9): 1390–1394.
Raj VAA, Velraj R, Haghighat F. 2020. The contribution of dry indoor built environment on the spread of Coronavirus: Data from various Indian states.Sustainable Cities and Society. 62:102371.
Rothan HA, Byrareddy SN. 2020. The epidemiology and pathogenesis of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak. Journal of Autoimmunity. 109: 102433.
Saadat S, Rawtani D, Hussain C. 2020. Environmental perspective of COVID-19.The Science of the Total Environment. 728: 138870.
Saarloos D, Kim J E, Timmermans H. 2009. The built environment and health: Introducing individual space-time behavior. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 6(6):1724–1743.
steiger J H. 2017. Exploratory Factor Analysis with R. accessible from:http://www.statpower.net/Content/312/R%20Stuff/Exploratory%20Factor%20Analysis%20with%20R.pdf, 1-10
Tabachnick B, Fidell L. 2012.Using multivariate statistics, (6th Edition) Pearson Education, Inc.
The Harvard Gazette. A five-layered defense for workplace reopening (Accessed July 20, a 2020)https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/04/looking-at-covid-19-through-healthy-building-eyes/.
The Harvard Gazette. Healthy buildings expert outlines recommendations for school reopening (Accessed July 20, b 2020) 0/06/harvard-expert-outlines-recommendations-for-school-reopenings/.
UNISDR. (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction). 2005. Building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters: Hyogo Framework for Action 2015–2030. UNISDR [Online]. Available from www.unisdr.org/wcdr/intergover/official-doc/Ldocs/Hyogo-framework-for-action-english.pdf.
Wild CP. 2005. Complementing the genome with an “exposome”: The outstanding challenge of environmental exposure measurement in molecular epidemiology.Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers & Prevention, 14(8): 1847–1850.
Yashima K, Sasaki A. 2014. Epidemic process over the commute network in a metropolitan area. PloS One. 9(6):98518.
Yip TL, Huang Y, Liang C. 2021. Built environment and the metropolitan pandemic: Analysis of the COVID-19 spread in Hong Kong, Building and Environment. 188:107471.
روابط عمومی سازمان مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی استان آذربایجان‌شرقی. 1396. گزارش عملکرد سازمان مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی استان آذربایجان شرقی در سال 1396: به همراه برنامه عملیاتی سال .1397. سازمان مدیریت و برنامه ریزی استان آذربایجان شرقی. تبریز.
زبردست، اسفندیار. 1396. برنامه‌ریزی مسکن در سطح محلی، معاونت مسکن و ساختمان. وزارت راه و شهرسازی، تهران.
Andrianou XD, Pronk A, Galea KS, Stierum R, Loh M, Riccardo F, et al. 2020. EXposome based public health interventions for infectious diseases in urban settings. Environment International, 146:106246.
Auger KA, Shah SS, Richardson T, Hartley D, Hall M, Warniment A, et al. 2020. Association between statewide school closure and COVID-19 incidence and mortality in the US. JAMA. 324(9): 859–870.
Bolashikov ZD, MelikovAK. 2009. Methods for air cleaning and protection of building occupants from airborne pathogens. Building and Environment, 44(7): 1378–1385.
Brown KA, Jones A, Daneman N, Chan AK, Schwartz KL, Garber GE, et al. 2020. Association between nursing home crowding and COVID-19 infection and mortality in Ontario, Canada. Preprint at medRXiv. 181(2):229-236.
Chan JFW, Yuan S, Kok KH, To KKW, Chu H, Yang J, et al. 2020.A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster. Lancet, 395 (10223): 514–523.
covid19.who.int [Internet]. World Health Organization (WHO); c2024 [Cited 2024, 20 April]. Available from: https://data.who.int/dashboards/covid19/cases?n=c
Dietz L, Horve PF, Coil DA, Fretz M, Eisen JA, Van Den Wymelenberg K. 2020. 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic: Built environment considerations to reduce transmission. Msystems, 5(2).
European Commission. 2020. COVID-19: Guidelines on the progressive restoration of transport services and connectivity. Brussels, Belgium: European Commission.
Eykelbosh A. 2020. Physical barriers for COVID-19 infection prevention and control in commercial settings [blog]. Vancouver, BC: National Collaborating Center for Environmental Health. available at: https://ncceh.ca/content/blog/physical- barriers-covid-19-infection-prevention-and- control-commercial-settings. (Accessed 13 May 2020).
Forbes. Why COVID-19 raises the stakes for healthy buildings (Accessed July 20, 2020) https://www.forbes.com/sites/hbsworkingknowledge/2020/06/08/why-covid-19-raises-the-stakes-for-healthy-buildings/#1babce5324cd.
Friedmann J, Wolff G. 1982. World city formation: An agenda for research and action. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research. 6(3): 309–344.
Gan N, Thomas N, Culver D. 2020. CNN. Over 1,700 frontline medics infected with coronavirus in China, presenting new crisis for the government. available at: https://editi on.cnn.com/2020/02/13/asia/coronavirus-health-care-workers-infected-intl-hnk/i ndex.html. (Accessed 24 February 2020).
Hamidi S, Ewing R, Sabouri S. 2020a. Longitudinal analyses of the relationship between development density and the COVID-19 morbidity and mortality rates: Early evidence from 1,165 metropolitan counties in the U.S. Health & Place, 64: 102378.
Hamidi S, Sabouri S, Ewing R. 2020b. Does density aggravate the COVID-19 pandemic? Early findings and lessons for planners. Journal of the American Planning Association. 86:1–15.
Henson R, Kyle R. 2006. Use of exploratory factor analysis in published research. Educational and Psychological Measurement. 66(3):393-416.
Howard, MC.2016. A Review of Exploratory Factor Analysis Decisions and Overview of Current Practices: What We Are Doing and How Can We Improve? International Journal of Human Computer Interaction. 32(1): 51–62.
Hui DS, Azhar EI, Madani TA, Ntoumi F, Kock R, Dar O, et al.2020. The continuing 2019-nCoV epidemic threat of novel coronaviruses to global health—the latest 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China, Int. J. Infect. Dis. 91: 264–266.
Kang DW, Kim M, Cho D, Lee S. 2010. The effects of urban development pressure on agricultural land price: Application of a miXed GWR model. Journal of Rural Development.33(4): 63–83.
Lee VJ, Ho M, Kai CW, Aguilera X, Heymann D, Wilder-Smith A. 2020. Epidemic preparedness in urban settings: new challenges and opportunities. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 20(5): 527–529.
Mathers, B. M., Degenhardt, L., Phillips, B., Wiessing, L., Hickman, M., Strathdee, S. A.,et al. 2008. Global epidemiology of injecting drug use and HIV among people who inject drugs: a systematic review. Lancet, 372, 1733–1745.
Morello E, RattiC. 2009. A digital image of the city: 3D isovists in Lynch’s urban analysis. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design. 36(5): 837–853.
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